Unmanned air vehicles have played a starring role in Operation Enduring Freedom. Besides performing reconnaissance and surveillance missions, unmanned air vehicles have fired weapons against hostile ground targets for the first time since the Vietnam War. More valuable than the UAV's, however, are the crucial components that make the systems so effective.

"Although air vehicles, such as Predator and Global Hawk, get most of the media attention, more than half of this market's total value, about $4.5 billion, will be generated by procurement of payloads and ground control stations," said Forecast International missile analyst Larry Dickerson.

The most profitable program over the next 10 years is expected to be Northrop Grumman's Global Hawk long-endurance unmanned air vehicle. "Since the start of Operation Enduring Freedom, the amount of interest in, and the number of missions likely to be attributed to the Global Hawk has increased substantially," said Dickerson. The total value of the Global Hawk program could reach $3 billion through 2011.

Despite UAV successes in the skies over Afghanistan, some supporters worry that the vehicles are being asked to do too much, too quickly, according to the report. Failure to meet rising expectations could easily wipe away all the successes achieved by UAVs over Afghanistan. Operation Enduring Freedom may have helped to boost interest in all kinds of unmanned vehicles - especially airborne systems - but whether this immediate interest will last or slowly dissipate as in the past remains unclear.

Anti-Ship Missile Sales Up
Steady growth is anticipated within the anti-ship missile market over the next 10 years. Through 2011, this market is expected to generate $6.6 billion in revenues with the production of more than 11,000 missiles, according to Forecast International's "The Market for Anti-Ship Missiles."

"The leading providers of anti-ship missiles remain located in North America and Europe," said Forecast International missile analyst Larry Dickerson. "Although these companies have seen their production volumes decline in recent years, they still offer the most capable missiles on the market today," he said.

MBDA, Europe's new megacorp, is offering improved versions of its venerable Exocet family, with further enhancements likely to appear in the future. "MBDA does not have a one-for-one Exocet replacement in development, leading to speculation that this missile will remain its primary offering on the anti-shipping market for some time to come," said Dickerson.

Meanwhile, Boeing is looking for additional customers for its Harpoon Block II. Although Boeing has yet to win an order from the US Navy, the company is pushing hard for sales on the overseas market. The missile's capability to strike land and sea targets could make it very attractive to Asia and the Middle East, according to the report.

Russia is attempting to expand its share of the anti-ship missile market, but so far with mixed results. "Russia remains overly focused on winning contracts from big customers such as China and India, and countries within the former Soviet sphere. Unless Russia breaks out of this mold, it will never secure the kind of market share enjoyed by its Western competitors," Dickerson said.

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