Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., chair of the House Science Committee, told a gathering of aerospace engineers and executives on Wednesday the proposed return of astronauts to the moon and Mars will not receive a serious review before the fall presidential elections and, worse, he said the ambitious plan was not likely to become a spending priority in the U.S. science budget.

On Jan. 14, President George W. Bush announced a new space program that included, among other items, returning humans to the moon before the end of the next decade, building a new generation of rockets and high-tech robots to support and substitute for humans in space, and retiring the aging space shuttle fleet as soon as the United States completes its role in building the International Space Station.

Beyond these goals, Bush said he wanted the U.S. space program leading to human missions to Mars, the asteroid belt, and elsewhere in the solar system during this century.

"The president deserves enormous credit for doing what many of us have been calling for, namely laying out a clear vision for the space program, making tough choices, and providing a plan that does not require Apollo-like spikes in spending," Boehlert told attendees at a meeting of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

"In its broad outlines, I think the president's proposal ought to be the blueprint for how we move forward," he added. But Boehlert stopped short of endorsing the proposed budget boost of $866 million the administration had asked for NASA starting in October.

"I just can't imagine that that's going to happen," Boehlert predicted. "And I don't think it should."

Instead, he said a careful congressional review should take place of both Bush's space goals and the budget and timetable proposed to achieve them.

"In such a budget, should NASA receive almost a 6 percent increase?" Boehlert asked. "Is it the highest domestic spending priority? I don't think so, and I doubt my colleagues will either."

He predicted the congressional spending bill containing NASA's budget request would not even receive a vote before the November elections.

"That means for at least a month -- and possibly for several months -- NASA will be funded by a continuing resolution," Boehlert explained. "That, in turn means that for some portion of next year, NASA will be flat-funded and will not be allowed to start new initiatives." If that occurs, he added, the new space exploration plan would be delayed -- at least initially.

He also suggested proposed cuts to other NASA earth-science and space-science projects to divert money to the exploration plan would not be supported politically.

"We may need to rethink some other programs to fund the exploration initiative, but I'm concerned that the proposed cuts may go too far," Boehlert said.

He said the pace at which the new space program proceeds within NASA -- if it proceeds at all -- will likely be slower than the schedule outlined by the president last January. That schedule forms the basis for NASA's working development plan, which calls for first test flights of the new moonship in 2008 and the first manned lunar landings no later than 2020.

Boehlert's remarks might seem surprising, because he is a close personal friend and political supporter of NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe. Furthermore, he has refrained from either criticizing or endorsing the new moon-Mars exploration proposal. As late as February, he had yet to hint which direction he would take regarding the NASA effort.

Boehlert, like all other members of the House of Representatives, is up for reelection this year. In representing the 24th congressional district of New York, he has charted a moderate -- some would even say a liberal -- policy course. Because there has been less-than-overwhelming support for the Bush proposal -- from within the House Science Committee, among legislators in general and from the public at large -- in moving cautiously and quietly, Boehlert has mirrored his constituency as well as his Republican and Democrat colleagues.

He also is quietly setting in motion a possible compromise on the $866 million requested increase. Boehlert said he would support -- as would most of the House -- full funding for the space shuttle and International Space Station. Together, the two projects account for two-thirds of the increased funding request.

What may happen is O'Keefe winds up with funds for the shuttle and the station, plus a part of the down payment for the exploration plan -- but under a slower developmental schedule.

Meanwhile, the administration is moving along another track to bolster the new space plan.

The White House has endorsed language in a proposed NASA reauthorization bill that essentially takes the goals embodied in the new space plan and defines them as the central purpose for NASA's existence. Should the reauthorization bill pass this year, it would formalize all of the advanced human spaceflight goals that Bush is seeking to pay for with his budget. That way, even if the full budget request fails to pass, having the supporting language written into law might create an easier starting point for the FY 2006 budget debate.

The move would create a political backstop in case Bush fails to win reelection and Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., is elected instead.

Kerry has been critical of the Bush space plan and might even attempt to cancel it, in whole or in part, if he assumes the presidency next year. However, if this year's authorization is approved and if it contains language supporting a moon-Mars goal, Kerry would have a tough time trying to adjust NASA's charter to accommodate lesser objectives.

Others have suggested that, ultimately, the distinction would not matter. They note that Kerry would not be obligated to continue Bush space policies, no matter what language is contained in NASA's reauthorization. Moreover, without funding, the point would be moot.

Bottom line: At this point, few close observers think the reauthorization bill will receive a vote by Congress this session.

Boehlert told the AIAA audience he not only supports the agency's reauthorization effort, but hopes such a bill is introduced in the House around July 4 and gets to a vote by September.

"I hope the authorization process will give a green light -- or at least an amber light -- to the space exploration initiative, broadly defined," he said, again cautioning that the new exploration effort must be sandwiched into other priorities closer to home.

"Do I think that it's more important to know more about the Earth than it is to know more about Mars?" he asked. "I do -- and I don't think it's a close question."

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