Futron Reviews Our Orbital ASCENT

ROCKET SCIENCE

Determining the underlying demand for space-related applications and translating that demand into global launch forecasts were the challenges Futron met in the ASCENT Study.

Full PDF Report

Bethesda - Apr 14, 2003
Futron has recently completed a groundbreaking study of existing and emerging space markets. The study, commissioned by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as part of the Space Launch Initiative, was dubbed the ASCENT Study, which stands for Analysis of Space Concepts Enabled by New Transportation.

The "new transportation" in question at the onset of the study was the Space Shuttle follow-on, then known as the 2 nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (2 nd Gen RLV).

NASA envisioned that the 2 nd Gen RLV would be commercially owned and operated. For this to be accomplished, a business case would need to be made regarding the viability of a 2 nd Gen RLV.

The key aspects of a business case for any RLV include the available launch market for the vehicle (government and commercial) and the flight rate it could achieve. The ASCENT Study was initiated specifically to address the business case for a 2 nd Gen RLV.

In order to accurately assess the potential market and flight rate for an RLV, the underlying demand for launches must be quantified. As anyone who follows the launch industry knows, accurate forecasts of existing space markets (e.g., telecommunications, surveillance, and remote sensing) are hard to find.

Furthermore, current data and forecasts on nascent and future space markets (e.g., space tourism, space manufacturing, and space solar power) are practically non-existent.

Determining the underlying demand for space-related applications and translating that demand into global launch forecasts were the challenges Futron met in the ASCENT Study.

The study forecasted the size of government and commercial space markets for the next 20 years, determined sensitivities to the forecasts, and assessed the business opportunities for current and future launch systems. Futron's goal was to establish the "definitive word" on the various space markets, their viability, maturity, size, and elasticity.

Futron applied several principles in the execution of the ASCENT Study, including the following:

Objectivity - Futron is not tied to any launch vehicle or concept;
Standard economic and market theory - Futron used NAICS codes, S curves, and other industry-accepted procedures and practices;
Comprehensive data collection - Futron accumulated over 350 publications, reports, and other media during the course of this study;
Analytically rigorous assessments - Futron used detailed modeling techniques, never "guessed," and always had some basis for all assumptions used in our analyses; and
Business realism - Futron applied the mindset of a bank or venture capitalist being asked to invest in a concept when evaluating the various space markets.

This pragmatic approach brought a cold blast ofrealism to past studies and forecasts. We now have a much better understanding of what is possible, what is not, and where we should focus our attention.

Thus, even though NASA has redefined its space transportation strategy to focus on an Orbital Space Plane (OSP), the ASCENT Study uncovered the answers to some unanswered questions. This White Paper highlights the 10 most interesting findings.

The complete report is available here as a PDF file

ROCKET SCIENCE

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Andrews Space & Technology (AS&T) successfully demonstrated the fundamental operating principles of a propulsion system that could dramatically affect interplanetary space travel, shortening round trips to Mars from two years to six months and making future trips to Jupiter and back a two-year affair.

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