Last month, Japan adopted a new defense-policy guideline that lays out Tokyo's defense policies for the next 10 years. It comes into effect in April. For the first time, China is named as a possible threat and North Korea as a security concern. The threat of ballistic missiles, presumably from North Korea or even China, and terrorism were also prioritized.

The defense-policy guideline says Japan needs closer cooperation with the United States and suggests a bilateral strategic dialogue on security issues with Washington. The government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has already relaxed Japan's arms exports ban to enable it to work together with the United States to develop a missile defense system.

Washington is reportedly encouraging Tokyo to play a larger role and expand its military operations in the so-called arc of instability stretching from Northeast Asia to the Middle East. Such a move is likely to set off alarm bells not only in China but also in South Korea, the Philippines and elsewhere.

As a study by Christopher Hughes, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, makes clear the old rules are being bent as Japan confronts not only China but also problems posed by terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the weakening of an overstretched U.S. defensive shield.

Russia shares Tokyo's worries about Beijing's regional ambitions. Bilateral trade is expanding, with Japanese investment flowing into Russia's energy and automotive sectors.

Moscow has announced a new $11.3 billion oil pipeline from eastern Siberia would run to the Pacific coast, allowing access to Japan, rather than to Daqing, in northeast China. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Tokyo soon and high-level talks have even recommenced over a 60-year-old territorial dispute. Military contacts are also growing.

In other words, as China stands up, so too again may Japan.

China maintains it is not a menace or a threat to anyone and its much-touted peaceful rise is for the political, economic and security good and unity of Asia. Not everyone thinks so, especially not Japanese hawks and some hard-headed Japanese military planners and politicians who want their country to assume its rightful role on the world stage.

The Australian news agency Asia Pulse reported Japan had been asked by the U.S. government to boost the monitoring of the Chinese navy in the Pacific Ocean. The request was made at an unofficial vice-ministerial-level meeting in late December. The report said, and numerous reports confirm, the United States claimed China's navy was expanding its military presence in the region.

It's difficult for any country or organization to put together a true figure of China's recent strengthening of military power, as the Chinese Communist Party keeps real military operations and the actual buildup of the People's Liberation Army strictly confidential - apart from what is released for public consumption to boost national pride and morale and to intimidate Taiwan. Still, the Pentagon's latest annual report on China's military power to the U.S. Congress sheds some light on the subject.

According to this report, the U.S. Department of Defense estimated total defense-related expenditures for 2003, counting the large but difficult-to-calculate off-the budget financing, could be between $50 billion and $70 billion, making China the third-largest defense spender in the world, after the United States and Russia, and by far the largest defense spender in Asia, followed by Japan.

In recent years, China is believed to have deployed about 500 DF-11 and DF-15 short-range ballistic missiles in the Nanjing Military Region directly opposite Taiwan. The missiles' range is about 373 miles. The report said, Some can attack U.S. bases on Okinawa. Longer-range conventional medium-range ballistic missiles are expected ultimately to join the inventory.

Besides this, China has purchased Russian-built Su-27 and Su-30 fighter aircraft in bulk, as well as Kilo-class submarines and Sovremenny destroyers, AA-12 air-to-air missiles, SA-10, SA-15 and SA-20 surface-to-air missiles and other weapons.

Some experts, however, are more skeptical.

There (is) lots of political spin in that report and the language matters, said Douglas Ramsey, consultancy managing with Jane's Information Group, affiliated with Jane's Defense Weekly.

Ramsey, a commentator on security and defense issues, including those in Asia, pointed out, for example, the number of deployed DF-11 and DF-15 SRBMs remained unchanged in the past couple of years, but the report seems to emphasize the number has increased significantly.

From Washington's and Tokyo's perspectives, these military acquisitions by China apparently are targeted at Taiwan and enhance China's ability to attack Taiwan by preventing any military intervention by the U.S. troops in Japan, Guam, Hawaii and elsewhere by sea and air. China's shopping trip especially targets the operations of U.S. aircraft carriers.

Beijing calls Taiwan a renegade province; many in Taiwan, however, consider themselves distinct from China and a separate, sovereign nation or entity. China has not ruled out the use of force to reunify Taiwan and the mainland, especially if Taiwan declares independence.

Meanwhile, China issued late last month the White Paper, which outlined the country's new national defense policy. The document, the fifth on national defense since 1995, described Taiwan relations as grim and made clear any attempt at independence would be dealt with harshly.

Should the Taiwan authorities go so far as to make a reckless attempt that constitutes a major incident of Taiwan independence, the Chinese people and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost, China's 85-page paper said.

The Taiwan authorities under (President) Chen Shui-bian have recklessly challenged the status quo ... and markedly escalated the Taiwan independence activities designed to split China.

It also accused the United States of worsening the situation and supporting separatist elements by selling arms to the island. The United States continues to increase, quantitatively and qualitatively, its arms sales to Taiwan, sending a wrong signal to the Taiwan authorities, it said. The U.S. action does not serve a stable situation across the Taiwan Strait.

Washington says the arms are strictly defensive, mandated by the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act.

The Chinese White Paper described Japan's proposed constitutional changes as a threat, since they would allow the Japanese military to use force in international missions.

The rapid rise of a self-sufficient strategy Japan has been unable to respond adequately to military issues and to retool the nation's military machine for the new security environment for many years. There are many reasons.

One is Tokyo has not been required to take security matters into its own hands, as it has enjoyed security under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Second, ordinary Japanese have been so allergic to any military issues since the end of the devastating World War II that the government has mainly focused national interest and resources on economic growth.

The situation changed, however, in the early 1990s when Japan was severely criticized by Americans about its cash diplomacy -- opening its wallet and not sending troops -- during the first Gulf War.

Coupled with this trauma of Japan-bashing from Washington, North Korea's provocative actions since that time also forced ordinary Japanese to think about security issues for the first time since the end of World War II. Those North Korean actions include the firings of Nodong and Daepodong missiles years ago, spy-ship incidents, and the persistent nuclear crisis.

A Japan-U.S. joint security statement is expected to be released as early as next month.

The two countries are facilitating the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan and will likely call for greater cooperation between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and U.S. troops stationed in Japan to address threats jointly in the Asia-Pacific region.

It will surely provide the underpinnings for transferring the U.S. 1st Army Corps in the state of Washington, whose operation areas may extend beyond the Far East, to Camp Zama in Japan's Kanagawa prefecture, as well as consolidating the 5th Air Force in Yokota, Tokyo, and the 13th Air Force headquarters in Guam.

Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin once said, By the middle of the 21st century, when the People's Republic celebrates its centenary (in 2049), the modernization program will have been accomplished by and large, and China will have become a prosperous, strong, democratic and culturally advanced socialist country.

Almost no experts, except for neo-conservatives, believe China will start actual combat against Taiwan, drawing in the United States, in the near term.

But concerns over China's emergence as a strong military power are bringing cataclysmic changes as well as crucial movements in Asia's political and economic situation, especially in Japan. Concerns over China's mounting military power could be responsible for a new security architecture involving Japan and its Asian neighbors in the 21st century.

(United Press International's Outside View commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

All rights reserved. � 2004 United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of United Press International.

Related Links
SpaceDaily
Search SpaceDaily
Subscribe To SpaceDaily Express

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only