The group included noted skeptics Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the George Marshall Institute in Washington, D.C., along with three state climatologists and several university professors, and focused on the recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

With the occurrence of such severe weather events - and regardless of the type of event, flood, heat wave, blizzard, cold spell or tropical storm - news stories seem to mention global warming as a possible cause, the group said in a news release.

We suggest that natural variability of storminess is the cause of Florida's recent hurricane disasters. In such times there is an emotional tendency to pin blame somewhere, the release continued. But rather than blaming global warming - for which there is little supporting meteorological evidence - emphasis on emergency preparedness and further storm research would be a constructive response.

Contrary to this assertion, neither the media nor other climate scientists are attributing the force or frequency of hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan or Jeanne to global warming.

So, having set up this straw man, the skeptics had little trouble knocking it down.

In this column last week, for instance, United Press International analyzed the possible hurricane-global warming connection and specifically said experts do not attribute the development of these storms to global warming.

Here's what the New York Times wrote: Global warming is not a significant factor in this year's storminess, experts said. While some climate models predict that warming might eventually mean somewhat stronger hurricanes, that effect is expected to be very small compared to the natural hurricane cycle.

The Washington Post apparently did not mention global warming at all in its coverage of the storms. Nor did the Los Angeles Times or the Associated Press. It is impossible to watch all of the hurricane coverage on television, but what UPI saw either ignored global warming altogether or dismissed it as a cause of more damaging or more frequent hurricanes.

The question, then, is where are these news stories that seem to mention global warming as a possible cause? The only ones UPI could find - conveniently provided by the British-based climate skeptic group CCnet - was a citation from the Sept. 7, 2004, Detroit Free Press, which said, Some experts attribute the increased (hurricane) activity to global warming, but others say it's just part of natural cycles.

Also, the Baltimore Sun wrote in an editorial: Would Ivan have happened without human influence on global warming? Perhaps.

Not an overwhelming consensus.

In response to a request from UPI, Tech Central Station forwarded a collection of six news or Web articles it said supported its assertions. Only one - a broadside by the environmental group Greenpeace - can be interpreted as supporting the assertion that global warming is behind the hurricanes. Greenpeace is neither news media nor scientific organization. It is an advocacy group, like, say, Tech Central Station.

Furthermore, no genuine experts attribute increased hurricane activity to global warming. No one can even say for certain whether there is increased hurricane activity - something that has been kicked around by the news media.

Kerry Emmanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an expert on hurricane activity, told UPI scientists do not know why hurricanes occur at the frequency they do now - why the Western Hemisphere should experience eight in a given year and not 80.

We have not advanced enough to know why frequency would change, he said. There have been some brute force attempts to model frequency under a doubling of (atmospheric carbon dioxide), but the studies have come to completely conflicting conclusions. We are completely at sea on the issue.

The International Panel on Climate Change Technical Summary has put it crisply and clearly: There is little agreement yet among models concerning future changes in mid-latitude storm intensity, frequency and variability. There is little consistent evidence that shows changes in the projected frequency of tropical cyclones and areas of formation.

Emmanuel put it more bluntly. "The intensity of current hurricanes such as Ivan cannot be attributed to global warming, he said.

The really good records of hurricanes go back only about 35 years, Emmanuel said. We can't say yet that the tropics have warmed up. We don't have good enough records to be able to discern any signal. The average (sustained wind speed) would be up only 2 miles per hour, which is not detectable.

Diane Miller, spokeswoman for the skeptics group, cited a Sept. 14 speech by British Prime Minister Tony Blair as evidence warming was being blamed for the increased hurricane activity.

Extreme events are becoming more frequent, Blair told the Prince of Wales business and the environment program. Glaciers are melting. Sea ice and snow cover is declining. Animals and plants are responding to an earlier spring.

Sea levels are rising and are forecast to rise another 88 centimeters by 2100, threatening 100 million people globally who currently live below this level. The number of people affected by floods worldwide has already risen from 7 million in the 1960s to 150 million today.

All Blair's assertions are correct and supported by the preponderance of scientific evidence. The problem is the prime minister made no reference to the current severity or frequency of U.S. hurricanes.

A review of the technical literature, the expert testimony and media reports finds the only people alleging the current hurricane frequency or intensity is the result of global warming are the skeptics themselves.

Dan Whipple covers the environment for UPI Science News. E-mail [email protected]

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