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Moon, Mars, and Making Money

There are two identifiable camps in the generation now entering political power - those who are looking for a return to the Moon on a commercial basis, and those seeking a government-sponsored human exploration of Mars.
by Richard Perry
London - Oct 29, 2001
Recent articles on SpaceDaily such as "Where's my flying car?" and "The Lure of Mars" reveal a common trait between two identifiable camps of the 'Children of Apollo'. They want something.

Unlike the 1960's generation who at the removal of various social barriers went out and created, the 'Children of Apollo' generation (born in the late 1950's and 1960's) have been used to getting what they say they want.

Brought up on a high energy diet of post-Apollo NASA PR, better SF films, television and literature, their constant wanting had been fulfilled.

Until now. With the turn of the century, that Apollo generation finds itself in a mid-life crisis. They are looking around for the toys that they had been promised, and are asking where they are.

The two identifiable camps in this generation are those looking for a return to the Moon on a commercial basis, and those seeking a government-sponsored human exploration of Mars.

A common driver in these communities is a small number of folk who have realised that if they want these things, then they have to go out and create them. The reason for the non-existence of the moon bases and flying cars, and all the other complaints of this generation is largely due to that generation being a little late in taking on the responsibility to make those things happen.

Back To The Moon
At considerable expense, and as a spin-off from political aims, NASA proved with the Apollo programme that you can get to the Moon.

Work done by The Moon Society in recent years has identified the probable cost of a commercial manned return mission as being well under $2billion. This is supported by reasonably detailed programme and project breakdown structures for products and costs and which have been prepared by experts with substanital experience in this area.

Being a commercial objective however, a major failing in our current understanding of commercial lunar exploration is quite simply how to make it pay. We know the costs, but cannot yet identify the revenue streams.

As a result, the manned return to the Moon is likely to be preceded by a commercial unmanned return. There is already a small gaggle of private companies working on commercial business plans and spacecraft to do just that.

But even with sound business plans and the technical expertise to perform these missions, there remains an level of investor shyness about undertaking the investment risk.

Onward To Mars
Work done by The Mars Society to date, largely off the back of Zubrin's 'The Case For Mars' book has revitalised the concept of human exploration of Mars as a target.

Although hardly ever stated to date, these calls are for government money to be spent exploring other planets.

NASA itself has for years claimed no further interest in the Moon, without declaring any interest in places other than LEO (Low Earth Orbit). The reason is simple - government agencies like NASA are, by definition, driven by political agendas. NASA does what it is told to do, and in short, has suffered from a lack of firm direction from the voters.

The main fallout for the Mars supporters is that the government investment stream is currently tied up in the wrong programme - namely the International Space Station.

They have a significantly better case to present (in cost terms) in terms of the exploration of Mars, and their task is therefore simple - release the investment capital by political pursuasion. That means getting involved in steering what NASA is directed to do, using your rights, taking an interest. Not sitting back expecting it to all be done for you.

Requirements of Reality
So these two camps of opinion within the Children of Apollo generation have clearly defined roadblocks to surmount.

To return to the Moon commercially, the business processes required to make an attractive return on investment need to be defined. At present, only half the work appears to have been achieved in respect of this, although the unmanned commercial sector is looking reasonably healthy so long as it can get investment in the next year or two.

For a mission to Mars, the money needs to be redirected. It exists aplenty, but is directed at another effort. In the US, this means being able to detach spending commitments from the ISS as soon as possible. There are already some signs of NASA interest in privatising the operation of the station upon completion, but semi-privatisation to build on the clear market for space tourism could help speed that process, while removing uncertainty and fear about the commercial risk.

At the moment, all we know for sure is that NASA does not want to go back to the Moon. Equally, it is not screaming out for funding to go to Mars. It just sits there trying to defend the investment in the ISS - a sad state of affairs.

Those in favour of a manned mission to Mars can help speed that objective in several ways. Firstly, by getting in a position to influence NASA policy. Since NASA is a politically-driven organisation, this is entirely possible within a timescale of choice.

Secondly, to speed the re-direction of government investment away from LEO and towards Mars, they need to help NASA unwind from the ISS investment commitments.

The quickest way to do this may well be to push for semi-privatisation - with tourist habitation modules and the allocation of more tourism flights. As such, the Mars supporters need to be both politically and commercially aware to cajole the voting public and the rest of the political apparatus in this direction.

Where First?
The argument about whether to return to the Moon or go to Mars is a mirage.

NASA does not want to go back to the Moon and commercial moonbase plans would be destroyed by such action. The commercial space companies could not possibly contemplate going to Mars when they cannot yet see a closing of the business process loop for lunar commercialisation.

That said, there is potentially considerable crossover between lunar and Mars missions, and between government and private enterprise. Going to Mars and unwinding from nationalized budgetary interest in the ISS could be a stimulant to space tourism and hence lunar settlement.

The Government's Role
Going back to basics, the role of the government is ensure the best return on taxpayers money in what they invest it in. Any complaints about this need to go through existing political process.

In the context of the space frontier, the government also has a role to play. The ISS is clearly an overspend item with little return according to the original plan. Herein lies an opportunity to promote space tourism, and allow for the expansion of that using the ISS as a natural LEO base.

In turn, a viable tourist destination can help private investment in man rated launchers, and hence ease NASA requirements to produce a successor to the Space Shuttle.

Given a clear remit without unfair government sponsored competition, the private sector can deliver better and much lower cost of ownership launch facilities if allowed to.

All of this LEO activity helps space commercialisation through getting the human experience of spaceflight closer to the aspirations of taxpayers. In turn, they will support commercialisation efforts in LEO and those directed at the Moon.

Freed from these more local commitments, NASA can undertake the manned exploration of bodies beyond the Earth Moon system while taking advantage of increasing LEO and Lunar commercial facilities as excellent-value training facilities.

The tax payer will in fact come to expect this, and there is no better organization best placed to explore (as yet) non-commercially viable frontiers than NASA.

Summary
There is no Moon/Mars - first debate, since the underlying propositions are poles apart.

No-one is asking NASA to go to the Moon, and in fact the success of the commercial space sector requires that Governments play a hands off role.

Both planetary camps have considerable work to do to achieve their aims.

The lunar commercialisation people have yet to present a completely closed economic model for a lunar base. In addition, whilst a viable unmanned commercial lunar exploration market is ready to give birth, the investment monies are still intangible at this time.

The campaigners for Mars exploration need to recognise that their roadblocks are entirely political.

However, by learning some commercial tricks, they may be able to speed the road towards their goals and win over some considerable political and taxpayer support in the bargain.

Richard Perry is a member of the National Space Society, The Moon Society, a director of the commercial spaceflight company Transorbital Inc, and a member of the 'Child of Apollo' generation. Copyright 2001, Richard Perry

Feedback specific to this article and the associated debate is most welcome, and will be featured here at the end of the page. Send email to [email protected]

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The Lure of Mars
Eureka - Oct 23, 2001
I would like to take this opportunity to expand on the notion put forth recently in the article "Where's my flying car." As the author stated, the fact that NASA will spend $30 billion and take some 42 shuttle flights (each running some $500 million) to build the International Space Station (ISS) is somewhat disturbing to those of us brought up to dream about a mission to Mars as a follow on to our triumph on the moon in 1969.

If Someone Builds It, We Will Go!
Centerville - Oct 22, 2001
Recent contributions to SpaceDaily, (The Children of Apollo & Visions for the Future, Where Is My Flying Car?) have gone a long way to voicing the frustrations of many like me who have spent their lives waiting with baited breath for the Space Age to get going again.

The Children of Apollo & Visions for the Future
Rosslyn - Oct 9, 2001
Many of SpaceDaily's reader (myself included) are 'Children of Apollo', whose most impressionable years were profoundly touched by Mercury, Gemini and Apollo, writes Eric Strobel in an essay that explores the social contract his generation signed up for that promised a future supported by science and exploration.

Where's My Flying Car?
Pasadena - Sept. 22, 2001
In 1981, when I was ten, my parents and I watched live on television as the very first shuttle blasted off from Cape Canaveral. I had such great hopes for the manned space program. I was excited because I thought the shuttle would take us to outer space. I wanted to be an astronaut. I wanted to go to the Moon, Mars and the other planets.



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