The study, presented recently at a Washington think-tank, looks at various scenarios that could lead to an all-out war between the two South Asian neighbors, which conducted a series of nuclear tests in May 1998 and also possess nuclear-capable missiles.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947 and are still engaged in 57-year-old conflict in the Himalayan valley of Kashmir which caused two of these three wars.

Most of the possible war scenarios discussed in this study also focus on Kashmir where most international observers believe even a small conflict has the potential of escalating into a full-fledged war.

Recently, both India and Pakistan have agreed to resolve their differences through dialogue and have taken several steps lessen tensions.

The study by the Pakistani defense official envisages possible Pakistani response to a various proposals being discussed in India's defense circles for dealing with the Kashmir insurgency, which India blames on Pakistan-backed militants.

The author, who wished not to be identified, argues that recently India has put forward the concept of a limited conventional war aimed at achieving a specific political objective, such as putting down the uprising in Kashmir.

But the author warns that what India may see as a limited conventional war, may not be accepted to Pakistan as such. Similarly, what India defines as limited political perspective, may have a different implication for Pakistan, he adds.

The author points out that most Western analysts and scholars are not comfortable with India's limited war doctrine and they also believe that a limited war between India and Pakistan cannot remain limited for long.

Comparing nuclear policies of the two countries, the author says that the central theme of Pakistan's nuclear policy guidelines is to act in a responsible manner and to exercise restraint in conduct of its deterrence policy.

Pakistan, he said, also wants to ensure that its nuclear capability does not pose any threat to non-nuclear weapon states in the region.

Pakistan's nuclear capability is very clear for deterrence of aggression and defense of its sovereignty, the author said.

India's declared nuclear doctrine, he said, is based on a posture of no first use of nuclear weapons. India, however, retains the option of using nuclear weapons in retaliation against a nuclear, biological or chemical attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere.

India's doctrine contains an inbuilt offensive design. The most dangerous aspect of this policy is that it keeps the option open for a conventional war against Pakistan, according to the author.

Asked why Pakistan had used the option of a limited conventional war in Kargil in 1999, the author said Kargil is part of Siachen sector where limited battles have continued since 1984. Kargil, he said, was a continuation of the same ongoing skirmishes between India and Pakistan.

The author then explains various options India may exercise for launching a limited conventional war against Pakistan. These include:

-- Surgical strikes conducted along the Line of Control in Kashmir against Pakistani troops and jihadi camps, which India says Pakistan is running on its side of Kashmir.

The Indians have already attacked along the LoC to prevent Kashmiri fighters from crossing into Indian Kashmir but never succeeded in acquiring the desired results. So far, India only uses artillery for launching these surgical strikes into Pakistani Kashmir but under the new strategy they will also use air strikes for hitting targets across the LoC.

-- Hot pursuits that include physically crossing the LoC and battling envisaged jihadi camps or capturing certain areas. It is an open option, says the author. In any war scenario, India can use it."

But if they do so, Pakistan is not going to sit quiet. It will be an act of war which will not remain limited and it can escalate to a full-scale war and ultimately it can lead to a nuclear conflict if Pakistan's national interests are threatened, the author warns.

-- Cold start strategy for which India has been raising eight to 10 combat groups to implement this new strategy. Each group will include forces from the army and the air force and, if required, from the navy.

Each combat group will have a hard-hitting force of 3,000-4,000 troops and it should be able to achieve its objective in 72 hours, before Pakistan reacts or approaches the international community.

The author says that Pakistan will not view an attack by this new force as a limited war. For us it will be a full-scale war, and Pakistan will respond with full resources, and if we fail to contain the Indians, the nuclear factor will definitely come in.

Explaining how a conventional war can lead to a nuclear conflict, the author says: In a full conventional war, India has the potential to create impact. And if it does so, it will force Pakistan to use its nuclear option.

Before the two countries acquired nuclear capability, India's strategy was to invade Pakistan and divide it into north and south. By severing all links between the two parts of the country, India hoped to force Pakistan to negotiate peace on New Delhi's terms.

The Indians, the author said, also are considering a number of other options for launching a fast but effective incursion into Pakistan without causing a full-scale war.

But in the final analysis, he said, all options to initiate war by India may look independent and workable but ultimately will lead to the same destination which both sides would like to avoid as responsible nuclear states.

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