With both governments facing complex domestic political situations and less international attention on the conflict, tensions between the arch-rivals are likely to persist for months, they said.

"There is still a risk of miscalculation by both sides," one diplomat told AFP, stressing "the need for re-engagement by the international community."

Tensions between India and Pakistan have skyrocketed since December 13 when the Indian parliament was attacked by Islamic militants who New Delhi alleges are members of two Pakistan-based groups fighting its rule in Kashmir.

The two sides have deployed about one million troops to their common borders, with little sign from New Delhi it will ease the forward deployment anytime soon, according to diplomats.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Islamabad and New Delhi in January to cool tempers. He remains in close contact with both sides, but US diplomacy has recently shifted focus to the crisis in the Middle East.

Diplomats noted that high-level visits to the two capitals have trailed off. By contrast, a parade of Western diplomats visited South Asia before and immediately after the attack on parliament to secure both countries' support for the US-led military action in Afghanistan.

India says Pakistan has not met one of its key demands: a halt in support for Islamic guerrillas fighting Indian rule in Kashmir. New Delhi contends that the number of rebels crossing the disputed Himalayan border has in fact risen.

The two sides sporadically exchange fire in Kashmir, and Indian forces and separatist militants engage in bloody clashes daily.

Indian officials also deeply distrust Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who announced a crackdown on January 12 against Islamic extremists, including a ban on the two groups allegedly behind the parliament attack.

However, Musharraf has since allowed the release of several hundred suspected Islamic hardliners. Indian officials have also been outraged by recent remarks by Musharraf that he would be willing to launch a nuclear strike on India in a worst-case scenario.

Pakistan has entered an election period, with a referendum on April 30 deciding whether General Musharraf, who seized power in a bloodless 1999 coup, should stay in power. The country will hold legislative elections in October.

April 30 is also a key day in India, where the parliament is expected to debate a resolution on the government's response to Hindu-Muslim riots in the western state of Gujarat.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's Hindu nationalist BJP has come under sharp criticism from the opposition, which says the BJP government in Gujarat has turned a blind eye to attacks on the Muslim minority.

The riots, which have left more than 850 people dead, have also destabilized Vajpayee's coalition of some two dozen parties, with several of them openly criticizing the BJP role in Gujarat.

The BJP has taken a beating in recent elections, in February losing in India's largest state of Uttar Pradesh. Since then BJP members, including Vajpayee, have stepped up their hardline rhetoric.

"We're seeing a weakening, a loss of confidence and a hardening of positions by the government," an analyst said.

"Electoral circumstances and internal politics (in Pakistan and India) mean that the situation will remain at an impasse for at least five months."

All rights reserved. � 2002 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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