Two of these unrecognized nuclear states, India and Pakistan, publicly tested their nuclear devices in May 1998. The third, Israel, is still an undeclared nuclear state but has dropped enough hints to let the world know that it has nuclear weapons. The fourth, North Korea, continues to defy U.S.-led international efforts to shut down its nuclear plants.

There is also an exclusive club of five nuclear weapon-states, an internationally recognized status conferred by the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which includes the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China.

Since the 1998 nuclear tests, both India and Pakistan have publicly declared their nuclear arsenals, but this status is not formally recognized by international bodies. Neither of the two countries has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

Statistics through December 2003 collected by a Washington-based nuclear watchdog - the Institute for Science and International Security - show that India possesses 55-115 nuclear weapons, compared to Pakistan's 50-90. Pakistan also has 1,000-1,250 kilograms of highly enriched uranium or uranium-235 enriched to 20 percent or more.

India also is believed to possess this weapons-grade fissile material, but the report does not reveal how much. India, however, has 300-470 kilograms of plutonium compared to 20-60 kilograms of Pakistan.

Pakistan mainly relies on uranium for making nuclear fuel while India relies on plutonium.

The institute that compiled this report is the same that published a report in 2003 that Pakistan's chief nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Published a year before Khan's public confession in February, the report caused a sensation in the United States but was rejected by Pakistan as speculative.

The institute reports that military nuclear stocks in India, Pakistan and Israel are continuing to grow and urges the international community to slap a ban on the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons to prevent further proliferation.

Pakistan, India and Israel are placed in the category of de facto nuclear powers. North Korea is listed as an ambiguous state while South Africa is listed as the only country which dismantled its nuclear program. It did so at the end of the Apartheid regime.

According to the report, Israel has 510-650 kilograms of plutonium and has stockpiled 110-190 nuclear weapons. North Korea has 15-38 kilograms of plutonium and 2-9 nuclear weapons. And South Africa, although it dismantled its nuclear programs in the early 1990s, still has a large stock of unirradiated uranium, about 430-580 kilograms.

The institute complains that Israel's plutonium and HEU stocks remain difficult to estimate. Similarly, India may now be producing HEU in significant quantities in a gas centrifuge plant it has been working on for many years, but the surveyors - David Albright and Kimberly Kramer - did not have an estimate for India's HEU stocks.

Pakistan's fissile material stockpile, the report says, has always been difficult to assess, but its stock now appears to be large enough to rival that of India.

North Korea has produced separated plutonium in unknown quantities during two periods and may now be enriching uranium, the survey warns.

But the total stockpile of fissile material - the key ingredient in nuclear weapons - and weapons of these five countries are still very small compared to what more advanced nations possess. The United States, the first nation to make nuclear bombs in 1945, is believed to posses 10,240 nuclear weapons, Russia 8,400, China 390, France 350 and Britain 200.

Describing these stockpiles as huge, the report says that at the end of 2003 there were more than 3,700 metric tons of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, enough for hundreds of thousands of nuclear weapons, in about 60 countries. Although some fissile material is disposed of, more material is produced, causing the total to grow each year.

This is worrisome not only because the world has yet to come up with an accepted method of plutonium disposition, but also from a security standpoint, says David Albright, one of the surveyors and president of the institute that conducted the survey. (We still don't know) how safe is that plutonium and highly enriched uranium.

The stocks of plutonium and HEU in the world are roughly equal, as are stocks of civil and military fissile material. However, most plutonium is in civilian stocks and most HEU is controlled by militaries.

The world's acknowledged nuclear weapon states hold considerable amounts of military HEU and plutonium. Most of the plutonium and HEU in military stocks are in nuclear weapons, reserves, dismantled weapons, and naval and production reactor programs.

Some military fissile material is being transferred to civil stocks and disposed of in civil programs. Russia, Britain, and the United States have all declared a portion of their military plutonium excess to military requirements. This excess plutonium, about 107 metric tons, has been dedicated to peaceful purposes, but its disposition as fuel in power reactors continues to be delayed. Russia and the United States have also declared excess HEU.

This excess HEU is to be converted into low-enriched uranium, which is less of a proliferation risk. By the end of 2003, Russia had converted 200 metric tons of military HEU into LEU to be used as fuel in nuclear power reactors. The United States had converted about 50 metric tons of its declared excess HEU stock of about 170 metric tons. Each year, roughly 30 to 40 metric tons of military HEU are converted to low-enriched uranium.

The survey warns that total unirradiated civil plutonium stocks are not expected to decrease in the next 15 years. A positive sign is that Belgium, Sweden, Switzerland and likely Germany will reduce their inventories to zero or near zero. Stocks in Britain, Japan, Russia and France are projected to remain large, even though France and Japan expect to use a considerable amount of plutonium as mixed oxide fuel.

About 50 metric tons of HEU were in worldwide civil research and power-reactor programs as of the end of 2003. The use of HEU fuel in research reactors has diminished as a result of extensive cooperative efforts between the U.S. Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactor program and many other governments. The program focuses on developing suitable low-enriched uranium fuels to replace HEU fuel in research reactors.

Every year, the global stock of civilian-controlled plutonium grows by 70-75 metric tons. The growth is in irradiated fuel discharged from nuclear power reactors. As of the end of 2003, about 1,370 metric tons of civil plutonium stocks were in irradiated fuel. About 330 metric tons of civil plutonium were in unirradiated form. The unirradiated plutonium has either been separated in civil power reactor programs or is military material that has been declared excess to defense needs.

But Albright warns that unirradiated plutonium, because it is less contaminated with other radioactive constituents, is more of a proliferation risk than plutonium remaining in irradiated fuel.

However, based on an assessment of the amount of spent fuel reprocessed and the amount of plutonium used in mixed oxide fuel, the report estimates that roughly 235 metric tons of plutonium from power reactors remained in unirradiated form at the end of 2003.

Roughly 15-20 metric tons of plutonium are separated from irradiated power reactor fuel each year, while only 10-15 metric tons of this unirradiated plutonium are made into mixed oxide fuel for use in light-water reactors.

A sobering conclusion is that ... total unirradiated civil plutonium stocks are not expected to decrease in the next 15 years, said Albright.

All rights reserved. Copyright 2004 by United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of by United Press International.

Related Links
SpaceDaily
Search SpaceDaily
Subscribe To SpaceDaily Express

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only