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Missile Proliferation May Accelerate Middle East Developments

Missile defense has been under development for many years in Israel where the threat of cross border missile attack is ever present
by Hazel Ward
Jerusalem (AFP) Jan 28, 2002
The Palestinian uprising could be moving into a deadlier phase as hardline groups develop more sophisticated weapons and Islamic and secular factions drop their ideological differences, analysts warned Tuesday.

Press reports last week that the Palestinians had, for the first time, used anti-tank weapons against Israeli armoured vehicles in the West Bank was the latest sign Palestinian groups are willing to up the stakes in the conflict.

That Palestinian militants are looking to upgrade their arsenals was also indicated by the Karine A debacle, in which Israel seized a ship loaded with some 50 tons of smuggled weapons allegedly headed for the Gaza Strip.

Among the military hardware seized from the ship were 122mm Katyusha rockets with a 20 kilometre (12 mile) range, anti-tank rockets, mortar shells, guns for elite units, mines and ammunition, as well as 1.5 tons of explosives.

Palestinians have for some time had anti-armour weapons, rocket-propelled grenades, anti-tank missiles and shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, all of which are prohibited by the Oslo peace agreements, Israeli experts say.

Under the 1993 Oslo accords, the Palestinian Authority was permitted some 15,000 light weapons and machine guns.

But as the struggle becomes grittier by the week, militants are turning to more drastic means, according to security officials.

The addition of advanced weaponry, such as the longer-range Qassam 2 rocket, with a range of some 10 kilometres (six miles) coupled with reports that Islamic groups are experimenting with chemical warheads, could shift the conflict to a new level of urgency.

Israel military affairs expert Ze'ev Schiff said the aim of acquiring new weapons capability was to escalate the situation to crisis point which would force either the Arab states or the international community to intervene.

"It's clear that if the Palestinians engage in activities which are bigger and more serious, we will react in a stronger way, and maybe that will cause a big enough crisis to get the international community involved.

"If they have weapons that could hit the airport, for example, it is clear that Israel's reaction would be very, very drastic," he said.

The threat posed by long-range weapons is one of the main concerns facing the security establishment, said Hillel Frisch, senior researcher at the BESA centre for strategic studies at Bar Ilan University.

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"Long-range missiles can have a reach of 30 kilometres which would place Ben Gurion, Israel's international airport, within range of almost anywhere in the West Bank," he said. "That is a tremendous reach."

Last week, Israel's chief of staff Shaul Mofaz said the Qassam 2, the long-range missile developed by the radical Islamic group Hamas in the Gaza Strip, had been brought to the West Bank so militant groups could manufacture them there.

"Trial runs have already been carried out and they are now moving on to manufacture more rockets so they will be able to attack cities within Israel," he told a group of reporters.

The daily Haaretz said Tuesday that security officials werre worried Hamas may try to launch Qassam 2 rockets at Jewish settlements in the Sharon region, the central plains which span the West Bank and Israel, in the coming days.

Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Centre said introducing new weapons capabilities could actually shift the conflict in Israel's favour.

"It would turn a low-intensity conflict involving terrorism into a more conventional war which plays to Israel's strength and the Palestinians' weakness," he said.

"Arafat has made the same mistake before -- in 1968-1970 in Jordan, and in 1980-1982 in Lebanon. Twice this has brought about his defeat and major setbacks," Rubin said.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has made it clear that any missile attack on a major population centre would force Israel to retaliate with extreme force.

"We are very disturbed by warnings of the launching of Qassam 1 and 2 missiles," Sharon told the parliamentary foreign and defence committee last week.

"We sent an unequivocal message, directly through the Americans, that the launching of such rockets and mortars into our territory will bring about a complete change in our entire mode of operation," he said.

Defence experts have also warbed that the increasing violence could blur the lines between secular and Islamicts groups, traditionally wary of each other, as calls for national unity escalate.

The frequency of joint attacks between groups such as Isalmic Jihad and the secular Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an offshoot of Yasser Arafat's own Fatah movement, has increased in recent months.

All rights reserved. � 2002 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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