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Analysis: Congress Upset Over War

File photo of American forces ridding a part of Baghdad of an Improvised Explosive Device. There are between 60 and 70 insurgent attacks per week, and the number of deaths since the Iraqi government came to power seven weeks ago stands at more than 1,000. Car bombings are at around 30 per week, up from one a week in January 2004.
by Azam S. Ahmed
Washington DC (UPI) Jun 22, 2005
With the death toll in Iraq mounting and insurgency attacks and car bombs reaching their highest point in months, key senators have started criticizing what they see as the White House's failure to acknowledge the reality in Iraq.

Democratic and Republican lawmakers, including Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz. and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., expressed concern at Vice President Dick Cheney's remarks last Sunday that the Iraqi insurgency was in it's "last throes."

Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., after returning from his fifth trip to Baghdad spoke Tuesday of a massive gap between what the Bush administration was saying and the situation in Iraq.

"The disconnect between the administration's rhetoric and the reality on the ground has opened not just a credibility gap, but a credibility chasm," he said at a briefing in Washington.

Biden, who has announced his candidacy for the 2008 presidency, is a ranking member on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

He urged President Bush to level with Americans on the situation in Iraq, adding without their backing, the president would not have the time needed to succeed.

"No foreign policy can be sustained without the support of the American people. The American people have not been informed about the reality on the ground and the very difficult challenges that lie ahead," he said. "They do not believe we have a coherent, realistic plan for success."

A June 8 Gallup poll indicated dwindling support among Americans for the war. Sixty percent of those polled supported either a partial or total withdrawal of troops, and 52 percent said they don't feel any safer after Iraq's invasion. The poll interviewed 1,003 adults and had a margin of error of 3 percent.

Some have drawn comparisons to Vietnam, where President Nixon decided -- after the deaths of 58,000 Americans and some 3 million Vietnamese -- to slowly withdraw U.S. forces.

Just as the Gallup poll suggests there is a growing critical mass of Americans who want to see the U.S. withdraw from Iraq, there was also, at the time of the Vietnam war, popular civilian support for a withdrawal.

"Nixon executed an extremely slow withdrawal of forces during the Vietnam war in response to a large amount of controversy," said Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute in Washington.

But the involvement of Sen. J. William Fulbright of Arkansas, chairman of the Committee for Foreign Relations, who held hearings on the U.S. involvement in Vietnam in 1971, set in motion debate on the war. Some say with both popular and political support, this ultimately led to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Vietnam.

Although recent congressional dissent may serve as a harbinger for an ultimate withdrawal, the dissatisfaction may also be a reason to increase the forces in Iraq, and improve the efficiency of the operations, Carpenter said.

"Discontent from key senators can undercut the current policy, but it may actually increase the amount of forces and efforts contributed to the region," he said. "There is no political incentive for the president to withdraw due to public pressure because he is a second term president."

Jim Philips, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think tank, says the administration's views are optimistic, not deceptive.

"I don't believe we're being deceived. I think the president's views are optimistic. Congressional members tend to get skittish in the run up to election years, which the president doesn't have to worry about," he said.

Biden is against the immediate withdrawal of forces from Iraq, making clear if the United States were to withdraw, a disaster would follow and a hotbed of terrorism would replace what is now a war zone.

U.S. military casualties have totaled 1,725 since March 2003, when the war began, with an estimated half of all casualties resulting from either hostile fire or improvised explosive devices, the Defense Department says. Civilian casualties are estimated somewhere between 24,434 and 25,426 since then, according to IraqBodyCount.org, a figure the group says is likely low.

There are 139,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, and roughly 168,000 Iraqi security forces. Experts are divided over whether the Iraqi forces are prepared to handle the insurgents.

"The security forces are continuing to make significant progress...Iraqi security forces are operational throughout the whole country, and on the whole, they're doing quite good," Lt. Gen. John Vines, commander for the Multinational Corps Iraq, said Tuesday.

Philips agreed.

"I think Iraqi security forces are growing in number and effectiveness," he said. "They still have a long way to go...but I think we are on the way."

Carpenter, however, said the state of the Iraqi security forces was a problem.

"The force as a whole is much more impressive in quantity than quality, and this poses a problem," he said. "If 150,000 of the best trained troops in the world can't handle the insurgency, one must be skeptical about a lesser trained force being capable of handing it."

One looming issue facing the United States is replenishment of the insurgent forces, with fighters infiltrating the Iraqi border from Syria.

There are between 60 and 70 insurgent attacks per week, and the number of deaths since the Iraqi government came to power seven weeks ago stands at more than 1,000. Car bombings are at around 30 per week, up from one a week in January 2004.

This week Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed frustration over the porous border between Iraq and Syria.

"Syria needs to control its border and make sure that its territory is not being used for insurgents in Iraq," Rice said.

Some critics say the United States should simply withdraw its forces and leave Iraq to prevent the further loss of American lives.

"There is the possibility of greater disorder and even civil war," Carpenter said. "There is also the possibility that once the U.S. is out, the Iraqis will pursue the jihadists and crack down on them even more, particularly because their stated reason of fighting is to be rid of outside forces."

Philips said he felt more certain chaos would ensue, adding security forces might be forced to join the insurgents, or strike a deal with them.

"Eventually the U.S. will withdraw, but if it they withdraw prematurely there could be chaos," he said. "A premature withdrawal would demoralize them and they might be tempted to strike deal with insurgents, potentially creating a global base of terrorism."

But Vines said there were no plans for a withdrawal, though he noted after the interim Iraqi government drafts and ratifies a constitution and elections are held, there might be the possibility of a pullout.

But experts question the likelihood of elections being conducted on schedule in December.

"It took the U.S. 13 years to write its constitution," said Biden in his remarks. "Iraqis have a little more than seven weeks."

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US Will Likely Begin Drawdown Of Iraq Force Next Year: General
Washington (AFP) Jun 21, 2005
The US military will probably begin withdrawing some forces from Iraq by March 2006, a top US commander said Tuesday, predicting the insurgency will be defeated if the country's political factions come together.



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