Overall, the analysis reports that deliveries of fighter aircraft can be expected to accelerate during the 2004-2013 timeframe. FI is projecting worldwide deliveries of 4,300 new aircraft worth $161 billion, with shipments and revenues both rising from late-decade onward.

The so-called legacy fighters - the F-15, F-16, and Mirage 2000 - continue to generate "last call" orders, but interest in these types will fade in favor of next-generation models such as the F/A-22, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Dassault Rafale, and the Eurofighter Typhoon by the end of the 10-year period under review.

Virtually all the new models are having difficult if not painful gestation periods as their development costs continue to spiral upward.

In the U.S. the Lockheed Martin F/A-22 has had its inventory objective scaled down to 276 aircraft as cost overruns and technical problems dog its progress, while the planned U.S. Navy/USMC buy of the same manufacturer's F-35 has also been cut significantly amid criticism of its "aggressive" development timetable and a weight problem.

Europe's Typhoon program may be further delayed as the consortium member nations renegotiate work shares and seek to cut costs. The program's credibility is not helped by rumors that the U.K. may reduce or stretch out its Tranche 2 order, although that country's Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims it has no plans to cut its 232-unit Typhoon requirement.

Meanwhile, France's defense minister has called for an audit of Dassault's Rafale program to resolve a dispute between the government and the manufacturer over who should bear the burden of unforeseen program costs.

The Saab/BAE Systems team will lease 14 Gripens to Hungary and another 14 to the Czech Republic, and has sold 28 aircraft outright to South Africa. The Anglo-Swedish Gripen International company will continue to promote the single-engine all-weather fighter to other sales prospects while Saab works on its Swedish Air Force order backlog.

Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane notes that a number of overseas governments have signed aboard the F-35 development program and adds that "should this multirole type emerge at the end of this decade as a cost-effective design living up to its performance and cost goals, it could become an everyman's fighter which could well emulate or even surpass the success Lockheed Martin has enjoyed with its long-running F-16 family."

At the end of 2003, with a first flight still more than two years in the future, the manufacturer already held commitments from the U.S. and U.K. services for nearly 2,600 F-35s.

Both Dassault and the Eurofighter group are battling Boeing for a 20-unit fighter order from Singapore. The U.S. manufacturer proposed a variant of its two-seat F-15E, and some analysts see this contest as the last chance for the Typhoon or Rafale to score on the export market before the advent of the F-35.

The Singapore deal may have a domino effect as in the not-too-distant future the island nation will also need to replace about 36 Northrop F-5s. In the interests of commonality and type standardization, the winner in the current competition may move to the head of the line. Meanwhile, Singapore is keeping its options open, having joined the development phase of the F-35.

In terms of unit production, Lockheed Martin will lead the field but, its current problems notwithstanding, the Eurofighter team is expected to overtake the U.S. company in value of production before the end of the forecast period. This projection assumes the multinational Typhoon requirement is not cut back. The Europeans will be closely trailed by Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and the Lockheed/Boeing F/A-22 team.

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