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Car Navigation A Billion Dollar Market Says Allied
Oyster Bay NY - August 20, 1998 - The global market for in-vehicle
ITS systems will grow from the current $1 billion to over $18 billion per year in 5 years, according to a new report from Allied Business Intelligence, "Intelligent Transportation Systems: Wireless In-Vehicle Navigation and Communication Technologies, Global Markets & Forecasts."Major ITS systems are: in-vehicle communication systems (IVCS); in-vehicle navigation systems (IVNS); electronic toll collection (ETC) using smart cards and transponders; automatic vehicle identification (AVI); automatic vehicle location (AVL); and collision avoidance systems (CAS). "CAS will be the big market winner. It's getting its opportunity to shine on trucks first. Eaton VORAD is fielding a CAS for trucks that has reduced fleet accident rates by 30 to 70 percent. The system is installed on over 10,000 trucks," said Michael Kujawa, senior transportation analyst with Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. "The CAS market will surpass $10 billion per year within 5 years." Widely available "mayday systems" access cellular links to call a central service whenever an airbag deploys or when a driver presses an emergency call button on the dashboard. The system hinges on the presence of a Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) receiver and the data link. More than 14,000 vehicles are now in the GM OnStar program. Drivers get voice-activated cellular communications, mayday support, navigation, and point of interest directions from a central service. Other car manufacturers are watching closely. One the lower end, the AutoPC market is about to be born in the US through a network of over 500 FM radio stations. It will far surpass European coverage encompassing Paris, three cities in Germany and most of the UK. These lower end in-vehicle information systems (IVIS) will furnish voice activation for directions, music channels, messaging and traffic conditions. Again, there is a subscriber fee. IVIS could expand into a multibillion dollar annual market within 5 years. Nearly 20 percent of fleet trucks are now equipped with cellular communications and paging capabilities, automatic vehicle location (AVL) with GPS receivers, smartcards for toll payments, and transponders for automatic vehicle identification (AVL). This segment of the ITS industry, already a $300 million per year industry, could expand to over $1.6 billion per year in 5 years. Some markets are starting now, others will appear in a few years. ABI's report pinpoints the markets, when they will appear, their evolution over time, and the rise and demise of various technologies in what promises to be furious pace of deployment, change, and opportunity.
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