Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, heading United Russia's ticket, is a strong position to negotiate his successor with the Kremlin when his term in office expires in 2008. However, what is overlooked is the notoriety resulting from the fact that the banned nationalist party Rodina (Motherland)was not on the ballot.

With all the votes counted and a voter turnout of 34.7 percent, United Russia received 47.3 percent of the ballots, the Communist Party for Russia 16.8 percent and Yabloko's united front, representing the country's two largest liberal parties, 11.1 percent. All the parties which passed the necessary 10 percent threshold did better than expected.

The nationalist party, Rodina, was barred by a Moscow court from running candidates days before the election for inciting ethnic hatred via one of its television ads.

The vote's outcome suggests that Mayor Luzhkov is in a strong position to determine who will succeed him to govern the nation's capital. Elected in 1992 and re-elected twice since then, Luzhkov became one of President Vladimir Putin's key allies in 2000 after having been a political foe. Since then he has been one of the leaders of United Russia.

Luzhkov has said he will stand down when his current term ends in 2008. This does not mean, however, that he will exit Moscow politics. Under Putin's recently enacted election reforms, Luzhkov and the Kremlin are expected to decide on a United Russia compromise candidate to follow him.

To remain in politics, Luzhkov is likely to shortly relinquish his position as mayor to become head of the leading party in Moscow's local assembly. Luzhkov's maneuver is shrewd and will probably work.

Putin's election reform allows the president to nominate regional governors, including the mayor of Moscow, to be later confirmed by regional or, in the case of Moscow, the city legislature. If local legislatures fail to confirm the president's nominee three times, the president has the power to dissolve the assembly and appoint a new nominee to serve until a special election is held. Thus, Luzhkov has every reason to be satisfied with the election's outcome.

Other parties pleased with their performance include the liberal party Yabloko and the United of Right Forces (SPS). More often at odds with each other than against the Kremlin, both called a cease-fire and joined forces. Candidates from Yabloko and SPS ran on the former's ballot. After coming back from failing to win a single seat in the 2003 national parliamentary elections, both have demonstrated that they can get a Russian liberal agenda back on track.

The Communist Party's showing was much better than expected. This is not because of a sudden upsurge in the party's fortunes, but because it is likely voters who had intended to vote for nationalist Rodina cast their ballots for the Communists.

Rodina, headed by Dmitry Rogozin, is a wild card in Russian politics. Formed by the Kremlin slightly ahead of the 2003 federal parliamentary election to lure votes from the Communists, Rodina preformed spectacularly well, scoring more than 8 percent of the vote as the Communists' representation in the Duma nearly halved to 12 percent. Since then, Rogozin's relationship with the Kremlin has deteriorated.

Rodina -- irrespective of its origins -- is a now a meaningful political party in Russian politics. It has a charismatic leader and a message that does resonate with a significant number of voters It is also a given that Rodina is driven to win.

Rodina is not like the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), headed by the flamboyant Vladimir Zhirinovsky, willing to have just enough influence to stay in the game. Rodina is not interested in politics as theater and feels confident it can win -- its present sense of confidence can only be matched by United Russia.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that Rodina purposely ran its television ads to create controversy with the foreknowledge (and acceptance) that it could be banned from running candidates in the election.

Rodina is a different kind of party -- it is a party of motion and action. Prior to the election, public opinion polls suggested that Rodina was struggling to reach the 10 percent threshold; others claim the party was doing slightly better. But these numbers are not what a party in motion attempting to show itself as active (and different from the competition) wants. Winning a seat in the local assembly that will be dominated by United Russia is not much of a prize.

Running the TV ad set Rodina apart from the rest of the pack. Its brand awareness today has not been as high since its creation in 2003. Sacrificing a seat on the Moscow assembly is nothing compared to being seen as the real and noble opposition speaking for the people of Moscow. By being denied participation in the political process, Rodina has the opportunity to claim it was not part of a process determined by vested and corrupt elites.

The fact that the LDPR was the party that brought Rodina to court over the inflammatory ad is full of irony and could backfire on the LDPR. Rodina could turn the tables on the LDPR by saying that Zhirinovsky is truly a clown and when push comes to shove, always supports the status quo in favor of the Kremlin.

Thus, the alternative hypothesis summed up is: Rodina would have gained little if it has won a seat in the Moscow poll. Being barred, its awareness among voters has been enhanced. Rodina cared little about this election and is eyeing the 2007 parliamentary election way before its competitors.

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