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Global phone system on hold but not dead
by Jean-Louis Doublet
 New York (AFP) September 4, 1999 - Global satellite mobile telephone service, seen just two years ago as a miracle solution, has seen two of its champions, Iridium and ICO, fall into bankruptcy, but prospects for the third, Globalstar, seem relatively strong.

The goal is to give subscribers telephone service from any point on the globe thanks to a constellation of satellites orbiting the planet.

Motorola-backed Iridium -- the first to operate as a global mobile telephone operator -- failed in a few months when just 20,000 signed on instead of the 500,000 subscribers needed to keep the network in the black.

So, in August, the company sought protection under US bankruptcy law following its failure to meet obligations on loans worth 1.5 billion dollars as its creditors fight over the still-operating network's assets.

Iridium's British rival, ICO -- a consortium comprising the formerly intergovernmental satellite group Inmarsat, -- never even left the launch pad, instead heading straight into bankruptcy court last week.

A third group, Globalstar -- spearheaded by Loral and comprising, among others, French firms Alcatel and France Telecom -- is due to begin operations in October with a 48-satellite network.

"Globalstar seems to have learned from Iridium's blunders," according to Mark Zohar, telecommunications analyst with the Forrester Research consulting firm.

"With lower per-minute pricing, lighter weight and cheaper dual-mode handsets, as well as focused distribution and sales strategy ... Globalstar will prosper as the leader of a small niche market but will not take over the world," he added.

Several years ago, telephone networks based on satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) had promised to be the answer for areas lacking the infrastructure for cellular telephones.

But that scenario failed to take into account the technological leaps enabling cell phones to become ever smaller, cheaper and more reliable.

"Today, regional GSM networks in Europe enable near seamless roaming on the continent, Zohar said.

"In addition, cellular systems are thriving in previously unserved markets like Cambodia and India and fixed wireless technologies are driving up penetration rates in countries like China and Brazil," he said.

The first Iridium phones suffered from serious handicaps: a heavy weight and a sizeable price tag, which did not makes things easier for an ugly telephone on which users could not rely indoors.

Iridium and ICO are among the 1990s most stunning business failures, according to Zohar.

Iridium cost some 5.2 billion dollars, ICO ran to 4.5 billion, while Globalstar is estimated at 3.8 billion.

Those costly failures have also cast doubts on plans to provide Internet service as announced in 1998 by Boeing, Microsoft, Motorola and Matra-Marconi (Teledesic) on one side and Alcatel-Loral (Cyberstar) on the other.

Those ventures hope to combine the existing LEO networks with other satellites in geostationary orbit 36,000 kilometers (22,500 miles) up to offer not just telephone service but Internet access thanks to broadband communications.

That project would cost some 10 billion dollars and would require one million subscribers to make money.

Teledesic hopes to start provide services in 2004, but that goal could change in light of the problems faced by Iridium and ICO.

But with the development of fiber optics and effort to adapt old cables to give urban subscribers rapid Internet access, "Forrester doubts that sufficient demand exists for broadband data services in non urban areas to justify Teledesic's staggering 10 billion investment," said Zohar.

Copyright 1999 AFP. All rights reserved. The material on this page is provided by AFP and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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