The Cold War had reached a stage of paranoia that�s difficult to grasp today. It wasn�t just a case of accepting that the world�s two superpowers had enough nuclear weapons to create a global catastrophe. It seemed that the catastrophe could happen at any moment. There was certainly enough provocation as power blocs confronted each other across an iron curtain in Europe, and bloody wars elsewhere.

Caption: An undated image taken from Chinese television footage shows a part of the experimental spacecraft being placed in the 'Long March' rocket at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province. The space craft, named 'Shenzhou' by President Jiang Zemin, is part of China's manned space flight program and has completed a short mission in space touching down in Inner Mongolia 21 November 1999. AFP PHOTO/CCTV

Enter the advent of space travel. The Soviet Union took the lead with little prior warning, filling the skies with satellites, dogs and later cosmonauts. Bellicose statements from the Kremlin suggested that the Soviets would seize this new ocean and threaten the world beneath.

Scan through the writings of the world�s first space analysts, who were just getting used to the idea that the space age was real, and you can detect an irrepressible sense of wonder and excitement.

It was amazing to see that events people had dreamed about for centuries were finally coming true. Adding to the excitement of what was known, however, was the mystery of what wasn�t known for sure.

The Soviets were amazingly stingy in the release of information, publishing almost no real information on either their satellites or the rockets that launched them. Craving detail, both amateur spacewatchers and professional military analysts would be forced to assemble crude speculations from the little evidence they had.

A strange pattern of radio beeps from a satellite, a change in the wording of a broadcast from Radio Moscow, the offhand remarks of a visiting scientist: almost any trivial detail was cherished as valuable evidence, and fed into the analytical process.

In some ways, guessing was half the fun. It turned the analysis of the Soviet space program into a mystery story. It allowed budding engineers to flex their intellectual muscles as they constructed estimates of lift capacities and technologies. It led to some legendary episodes in space history, such as the discovery by the Kettering Group of a formerly classified Soviet launch site.

Eventually, a combination of official publications and the tireless efforts of Western observers would strip away most of the mysteries of the Soviet space program. By the time the Soviet Union collapsed, the fully story was essentially told. Anyone could buy glossy books on the entire Soviet program and examine details that were inaccessible to even the CIA in the past.

Unveiling the Soviet space program was fulfilling, but in the end, it has also resulted in the end of much of the excitement. Space analysts are still busily uncovering some of the finer details of certain programs and proposals that never left the drawing boards, but these efforts are clearly showing signs of the law of diminishing returns.

Enter the Dragon, or in this case, a Dragon in Space, as the website of analyst Chen Lan used to be called. The Soviet Union has collapsed, the cold war is over, and much of the hardware of the Soviet space program is on display in Western museums.

Speculation about the Chinese human spaceflight program has existed since the seventies, when China�s space program placed its first satellites into orbit. Photographs would appear of putative Chinese astronaut trainees sporting pressure suits, and vague statements would occasionally emerge that suggested a human spacecraft was in preparation.

Ironically, analysts would discover that trying to dissect the Chinese human spaceflight program, or almost any other aspect of the Chinese space program, was even more difficult that understanding the Soviets!

Speculation about the long-awaited Chinese crew capsule would flow on for more than twenty years, fuelled by enough new statements to keep interest alive, but not enough to confirm anything. The failure on the part of China to release any precise data, let alone actually launch anything, only deepened the frustration.

By the time that an alleged photograph of the Long March 2F launch vehicle was leaked onto the Internet in 1999, the mood of the space community was so cynical that many analysts simply didn�t believe it. Too many erroneous conclusions had been drawn about the Soviet program in its early years, and it was worth being careful.

The recent launch of an uncrewed test flight of the newly christened Shenzhou spacecraft was relatively unexpected. News stories suggesting a flight was imminent had appeared in the days prior to the launch, but the Cry Wolf mentality caused industry professionals to ignore this.

It was only a few weeks earlier that China had suggested a flight would not take place until 2005. Thus, the first flight of a new human spacecraft to take place in the wired age caught most of an allegedly well-informed world by surprise.

The launch of Shenzhou has all manner of implications. Analysts will discuss the implications for technological development, science and strategic matters, but one important point seems to have been missed amongst the post-flight mania.

China has resurrected a sense of mystery and wonder about a classified space program that hasn�t existed for generations. Young scientists and engineers who weren�t even born when Sputnik flew can finally gain a taste of what it was like to see something hurtle through the sky, then wonder what was really happening behind closed doors.

We have enough information to serve as the foundation for some pretty solid reasoning, and enough gaps to leave us something to play with. Furthermore, information can travel more easily and rapidly than ever before.

Most of the discussion about Shenzhou amongst the aerospace community (including this article) is taking place on the Internet. Online communities for space enthusiasts are easy to find.

In some ways, the entire process could be even more enjoyable than those who wondered how Sputnik reached orbit, as the threat of an Armageddon-style nuclear exchange seems to be fading.

The imagery of Shenzhou and its launcher that has been officially released by China tells us a lot. It suggests that the leaked image of the Long March 2F that caused so much speculation is probably authentic.

It gives us clues to the technology and lifting capacity of the rocket, along with extensive details on the Shenzhou spacecraft itself. The acquisition of so much data after enduring such a long period with no real data to speak of is stunning.

It�s enough to more than satisfy our curiosities in the short term, but even this first test flight has yielded mysteries that didn�t exist prior to the flight.

The most significant mystery of all must surely be why the flight took place when it did. China is clearly not ready to place astronauts, or taikonauts, aboard Shenzhou.

A series of uncrewed test flights is to be expected prior to this, but recent comments from Chinese officials had suggested that Shenzhou was barely ready for its flight test phase.

This author wishes to suggest one factor that could have influenced the process: China�s efforts to join the World Trade Organisation. China has recently overcome a major hurdle in its long struggle to gain access to this organisation when the USA indicated it would not impede China�s efforts to join.

Even if the spacecraft is not truly spaceworthy, propaganda value can be obtained from a test launch. This could add strength to China�s final diplomatic initiatives with other nations to persuade them to grant WTO membership.

Aside from speculations about the politics behind Shenzhou, one can also wonder about just what happened on this first flight. The Long March 2F seems to have performed successfully, the Shenzhou spacecraft was unquestionably placed in orbit, and some portion of the spacecraft appears to have been recovered.

But how successful was it? At the time of writing, no engineering test data have been released. We do not know if the Shenzhou spacecraft was a fully equipped vehicle or a stripped-down test article. We have no data on its performance in orbit.

We also can�t be sure that the re-entry and landing proceeded smoothly. During the sixties, similar overall conditions were observed for Soviet spacecraft that were announced as successful.

Later revelations suggested that serious problems had manifested on some early Soviet missions that even the most critical Western observers judged to be trouble-free. China has released clear video of the launch of Shenzhou, but has only released computer-generated imagery of its orbital flight and recovery.

It would be hard to photograph Shenzhou under such conditions, but until the Chinese release more substantial information on this mission, there will be ample room for speculations of problems.

The most prominent issue being discussed at the moment is the level of Russian technology being used in the program. As the aerospace press has already pointed out, Chinese engineers have been somewhat vague in discussing their relationship with Russia, even though Chinese personnel have been sent to train at Star City.

There can be no denying the strong resemblance of Shenzhou to Soyuz, but we don�t know how indigenous the sub-systems could be. In any case, there will always be a certain level of commonality between spacecraft of any nation, as they are designed to perform essentially the same task.

The level of Russian involvement will probably be used as a tool to downplay any propaganda value attributed to the launch in the West, but such analysis will need to be taken in context.

Speculation will also begin to mount over the next flight. The Chinese have not said when this will take place. If they fail to test again within a year, it will reinforce suggestions that the first flight of Shenzhou was rushed for political reasons.

China could also use its imminent capability for launching people into orbit for more than just appearances of general strength. It could eventually offer seats to guest taikonauts from other countries, a political tool that was used effectively by the Soviet Union.

Again, we will need to see how well Shenzhou performs with a Chinese crew aboard before we can entertain serious discussions of this. With other nations that had been expected to develop an indigenous human spaceflight capability scaling back their programs, the advent of only the third human-carrying spacecraft after Soyuz and the Shuttle is potentially a major global event.

Finally, we may ask what the Chinese themselves eventually plan to do with Shenzhou. Their first human space missions will probably be nothing more than short orbital flights, designed to harvest propaganda value more than anything else.

But China is rumoured to have purchased docking systems from Russia. How soon will it be before orbital rendezvous between two spacecraft takes place? What then? A Chinese space station?

All of this remains to be seen in the years ahead. For the moment, we have the fun and the excitement of trying to uncover a bold new chapter in the history of space exploration. The space analysts of Generation X, including this author, are finally getting a taste of what it was like for their forbearers.

Morris Jones is a Sydney-based journalist and consultant. He can be reached at morrisjones"NOSPAM"hotmail.com - replace "NOSPAM" with an @ sign.

A POWERFUL DRAGON
China's Spaceship Is Mainly Russian
Paris (AFP) November 23, 1999 - Western experts are unimpressed by China's claims to have developed by itself the unmanned spaceship that took its maiden flight last weekend, saying the craft was born from a three-decade-old design bought from impoverished Russia.

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