Both India and Japan have shown space capabilities to match China, but what makes Beijing the leader is political will.

"What China has that other countries don't is political will, because it's a top-down directed program," according to Joan Johnson-Freese, an expert on China's space program at the US Naval War College.

"If the Indian government or the Japanese government were to decide that this was a priority for them, I have no doubt that they could in fact excel."

It is no coincidence that the main focus of any future space race seems to be in Asia, since here space exploration is carried out with the same ambition and vigor that characterized the west in the 1960s.

K. Kasturirangan, a member of India's parliament, sees space exploration stretching decades and centuries into the future, ending with the creation of habitats on other planets. He is not too impressed with the Chinese.

"What they have done is possible for any space-faring nation today. If you put the right amount of resources and then take a policy decision even India can do (a manned mission)," said Kasturirangan.

For Kasturirangan, a former chairman of India's premier space agency, the Indian Space Research Organisation, it is all a question of political will, not technical prowess.

"If you really look at the ability to build a space station, deploy it and make it into a manned thing India's capability is no less than anybody other's if they want it," he said.

In Japan, on the other hand, China's efforts are viewed with a mixture of admiration and suspicion.

Toshitsugu Tanaka, senior vice president at the Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies, praised China's technology but said national pride was the real reason behind its costly manned space launches.

"China's manned space launch is aimed to enhance national prestige in the world. Japan does not need to show its status in the space industry because it has already developed a certain level of technology."

He said Japan preferred to concentrate on satellites and other unmanned technology to observe the earth.

This would "bring a more profitable return and contribute to the Japanese society such as in terms of the environmental aspect," he said.

Japan's space agency aims to put a man on the moon in 2025, officials announced in February.

The new goal came soon after Japan put a satellite in space for the first time since suffering a setback in November 2003 when it had to destroy a rocket carrying a satellite to spy on communist neighbor North Korea 10 minutes after lift-off when one of two rocket boosters failed to separate.

The humiliation came one month after China became the third country after the United States and the former Soviet Union to put a human in space.

It is unclear if a space race could eventually erupt between China and the United States, who both have their sights set on the moon, and possibly Mars.

But David Baker, a London-based space policy analyst with Jane's Defence Weekly, said China is closing its technological gap with the west all the time.

"I don't think China is interested in racing anybody," he said. "The United States and Europe may very well feel they have to get their act together a little more vigorously than they have."

Phillip C. Saunders, a research professor with the Defense University in Washington, does not rule out a space race between China and the United States.

"United States doctrine envisions using a range of diplomatic, legal, economic and military measures to limit an adversary's access to space," he said in an article.

"However, China will almost certainly be able to use indigenous development and foreign technology to upgrade its space capabilities."

All rights reserved. � 2005 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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