With the pre-approval of state media managers for the remark to be made, and a double check with head office, the Xinhua news machine has been switched on to play Shen Zhou 6. And like bees to honey, a feverish Western and Chinese media has been stirred up precisely as intended.

China's astronaut program is notoriously hermetic to outside observers. Access to the launch site is restricted, and commentary is scarce. Picking up clues to imminent launch preparations often involves such arcane practices as photographing the launch site with observation satellites, to see if a Long March 2F rocket is on the pad at Jiuquan. But simply spotting a rocket in the open gives no precise indication of the launch date.

In keeping with established protocol little more has been said about the schedule, other than to confirm the comments were made, and to remain true to the official media line.

Backed by the advent of the Internet, and the history of newspapers in China since the communist revolution, China's media industry is simply massive. And just as we are seeing repeat after repeat of the same limited news in Western media, the same is happening in China with every media outlet processing the first story at least once, and probably twice given the nature of the story. It been space and inspirational.

One of the best indications of an upcoming launch is the deployment of China's fleet of tracking vessels, which monitor orbiting Shenzhou spacecraft from international waters. Ships, of course, can be deployed, then kept on-station, for extended periods.

They can also be deployed to cover other launches and activities, such as intelligence gathering. There is also the possibility that China's tracking plans for Shenzhou 6 could be slightly different from its predecessors as it continues to manage its various foreign ground tracking stations.

China has also had to compensate for the loss of its station in the Pacific island nation of Kiribati, which was dismantled shortly after the Shenzhou 5 mission. As such, tracking deployments of ships could be an ambiguous guide to an upcoming flight.

One short-term guide to a potential launch is the issuing of alerts to emergency services. Prior to the launch of Shenzhou 5, Chinese officials contacted the Australian government, and possibly other governments, to request the recovery of the spacecraft in the event of an emergency landing. Australia was a likely landing zone for a stricken Shenzhou that could not land in China, given the size of the continent, and the fact that Shenzhou's trajectory made frequent passes over Australia.

SpaceDaily spoke with a representative of Emergency Management Australia, a government organisation tasked with co-ordinating responses to major contingencies. According to EMA, Chinese officials made their request to the Australian government roughly four days before the launch of Shenzhou 5 in October 2003.

The short notice was apparently no problem for EMA, which has "off the shelf" plans in place that can be deployed for the recovery of spacecraft or hazardous space debris, and EMA stated that they would be able to respond rapidly to an emergency landing by Shenzhou 6 in Australia.

But according to EMA, no notification of an upcoming launch has yet been lodged by Chinese authorities with the Australian government. It is not clear if China will issue such a request to Australia this time, or how much notice they will give.

With no information leaking into the public domain, it is by no means certain that a Shenzhou launch will actually take place in September. The only way we will know for sure is when, or if, Chinese officials make a definitive statement about the date of the launch.

There's also the possibility that events could make an about-turn. China's initial statement about a September launch was non-committal, merely suggesting the strong possibility that it would occur. Diplomats and officials in the Chinese Communist Party could have placed the program managers on alert, suggesting that an early launch could be called for.

If the Shenzhou 6 launch campaign is in good shape and proceeding apace, the question of launching in September will need to be addressed; how Shenzhou will be perceived could be the fulcrum of a decision to launch, or not to launch, this month, and depending on the circumstances at the time, international parties could be impressed, indifferent, or frightened by a show of strength in space.

related report
China Could Launch Next Manned Space Mission This Month: Report
Shanghai (AFP) Sep 07 - China could move ahead the launch of its next manned space mission to as early as this month, a state newspaper reported Wednesday.

"The launch time for the Shenzhou VI is around September or October," Zhang Qingwei, president of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp, told the Shanghai Morning Post.

When technicians conclude last-minute testing a more concrete flight time will be determined and two astronauts will be chosen for the flight from a group of 14.

The newspaper speculated the launch would occur sooner rather than later, but gave no reason.

The mission, which is expected to last five or six days, differs markedly from the Shenzhou V which was a solo flight that lasted only 21 hours in October 2003.

The 14 astronauts being trained are all experienced airforce pilots, who have undergone seven to eight years of rigorous astronaut training. The chosen two will not be announced until close to the launch date.

The craft will carry a Shanghai 2010 World Expo flag although Zhang refused to reveal other objects the spacecraft would take into orbit. But he promised all would soon be revealed.

China is also developing its first unmanned lunar exploration craft for a launch by 2006.

China's space program is still shrouded in secrecy with little known about events until several days before they happen. However since the success of the first manned flight, the authorities have shown a little more transparency.

Keenly aware of the military, scientific and commercial benefits of space knowledge, China has been aggressively pursuing space exploration for years.

Since its space program was set up in 1992 it has grown to employ tens of thousands of scientists and other personnel.

All rights reserved. � 2005 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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