Shenzhou made its debut with a liberal dose of publicity in November 1999, when an uncrewed test version orbited the Earth for roughly a day. Since, then, rumours have surfaced regularly about an imminent second mission, and each time, Shenzhou has failed to leave the ground.

China's failure to launch in more than a year has caused much speculation amongst external observers, and the lack of reliable information on the program has only served to fuel almost any rumour that appears.

Has the project encountered insurmountable technical problems? Probably not, although nobody expects that Shenzhou has been an easy project for the engineers behind it. Is the project short of political support? Doubtful, although it's likely that it must fight to justify its funding.

It seems likely, as statements from various Chinese officials have indicated, that funding for Shenzhou is not as high as its development team would like. Such is the fate of human spaceflight in any part of the world. It's possible that this has a strong influence on the frequency of test launches, and the number of flights that will actually take place. But recent events have revealed another factor that could prove to be the real show-stopper.

The first flight of Shenzhou was tracked and controlled through a network of Earth stations. China operates telemetry stations on the ground, and also boasts a fleet of tracking ships that can be dispatched around the world. These vessels regularly sail forth before launches of satellites on Chinese rockets, and can deal with different trajectories by stationing themselves in different positions.

It's a versatile system, but China has decided to augment its existing capabilities with another fixed ground station. A tracking and telemetry station will be built in the west African nation of Namibia, near the coastal town of Swakopmund, a rather attractive port that's better known for oyster exports than aerospace.

Statements appearing in the Namibian media, including the daily newspaper "The Namibian" and the weekly newspaper "The Namibian Economist", have heralded the project as a boost to the local economy, which will use Namibian suppliers for its construction, and also employ a few Namibians to augment its Chinese staff.

The Namibian media has been somewhat vague on details, but statements made on the record by Chinese officials have confirmed a link between the Namibian project and the Shenzhou program.

Media reports suggest that the Swakopmund site was chosen for reasons of orbital mechanics, as it lies just beneath the point where Shenzhou will begin its de-orbit sequence for a recovery on Chinese territory (presumably Inner Mongolia, where the first Shenzhou was recovered). However, it seems likely that political and economic conditions in Namibia were also favourable to the project.

The first Shenzhou was apparently able to complete its mission without a Namibian tracking station, but it seems that this new station is necessary for a fully operational mission.

In March 2000, Space Daily quoted a report that expressed some rarely heard criticisms of the program. The source, described only as "an aerospace expert in China", referred to concerns over "poor � on-orbit control infrastructure" for the first mission ,which is presumably a reference to tracking stations. Clearly, China wants more ground stations to ensure it can properly track and control its spacecraft.

It would seem logical, then, to expect that the next launch of Shenzhou will be supported by this new tracking station in Namibia. The flight would test the ability to control Shenzhou with more precision, and would also verify the performance of the tracking station itself. Sending up a flight without testing this new element would reduce the value of launching a very expensive spacecraft.

It's worth waiting for the new base, but the wait won't be over soon. Namibian sources have stated that the Swakopmund station will be completed by mid-2001, with the station becoming operational towards the end of the year. So, a delay of at least eight months should be expected.

The very fact that Swakopmund is open for business doesn't mean that a launch will follow immediately. China will need to take hardware out of mothballs, and resurrect other elements of the program that could be dormant at the present.

In theory, China could have conducted a second test launch in the meantime, using its existing infrastructure for telemetry support.

The fact that China has waited so long suggests that a careful tug of war between impatience for another flight, a desire for propaganda victories, economics and technical factors has occurred behind closed doors.

In the meantime, observers who have awaited a launch in recent months should note that the next flight could be delayed for much longer.

China may choose October 2001 as its next launch window, and may finally achieve the goal of conducting a launch on or near its national day. Chinese officials have grown increasingly vague in discussing precise launch schedules, and the nation's first-ever white paper on astronautics, released in November, only speaks of human spaceflight as a goal "for the next decade". But if events in Africa proceed according to plan, they may finally help to cement a more precise timetable of missions for Shenzhou.

Morris Jones is a Sydney, Australia-based consultant and journalist. He can be contacted at morrisjonesNOSPAMhotmail.com. Replace NOSPAM with @ to send email.

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