Rumours and stories of upcoming launches have circulated on several occasions in the meantime. A major alert was sounded in early 2000, when a Hong Kong newspaper reported that a launch would take place in February. The event would tie in with Chinese New Year celebrations, adding to its propaganda value. This failed to happen. It was generally expected that a second launch would take place sometime in the second half of 2000, a time interval that would give Shenzhou engineers the opportunity to modify the spacecraft. China�s national day celebrations on October 1 seemed to be an obvious date, and regular statements by Chinese officials reinforced this belief. Yet the parades on the ground were not accompanied by any new spacecraft in the sky above.

It�s been roughly a month since this opportunity appeared, and still, China has yet to launch a second Shenzhou mission. The time interval since the first flight is almost a year. Is China really serious about pursuing a human spaceflight program?

Probably, but the level of support varies in different spheres. There can be no doubt that China�s aerospace community is strongly supportive of the project, and certain members of the scientific community would also feel attached to it. The program would simply not exist at all without the approval from China�s government. It�s also likely that a large proportion of the Chinese population feels enthusiastic about seeing their homeland making progress in this very advanced technological venture.

Human spaceflight can still be very exciting, even in an age where several space shuttles take off every year. It can help galvanise national unity within China�s borders, and possibly boost China�s international profile. It can also advance scientific and technological research. If China is sufficiently ambitious, Shenzhou could even become a source of revenue for their economy, as seats aboard the vehicle are sold to foreign clients.

Despite its benefits, the fact remains that human spaceflight is horrendously expensive. Statements from China have indicated that economic factors have always influenced human spaceflight in that nation. Funding for Shenzhou must compete with China�s aspirations to develop its civic infrastructure on the ground. Whenever bean counters in Beijing plan the distribution of funding for state projects, Shenzhou will face strong competition.

Spending money on roads or power stations is a predictable activity, and it�s also a very traditional way to invest in a nation�s future. You know what you will spend, you know what you will get, and you know how this will assist the development of the country. Furthermore, the benefits begin to flow almost as soon as the infrastructure is completed.

Human spaceflight can�t be sold with such a conventional pitch. It�s risky, it�s costly, and the benefits can�t be specified in precise terms. The major result in the short term would seem to be propaganda, both internal and international. There is no doubt that the first flight of Shenzhou contributed to this goal, but was the return enough to justify the investment?

In an earlier article for Space Daily (Shenzhou: The Fun Continues, December 1, 1999) I pointed out that reactions to Shenzhou�s first flight had been somewhat measured. The general media gave it a small amount of exposure, then quickly forgot about the story. It did little to influence subsequent coverage of China, and it does not seem to have affected the behaviour of foreign governments. China�s greatest foreign policy achievement in the meantime has been its progress in normalising trade relations with the USA. But this was a long-term effort that probably owes nothing to Shenzhou.