Even with only "moderate" future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, average temperatures in the region could rise by between four and seven degrees Celsius (between seven and 13 degrees Fahrenheit) by year 2100, an Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report published by an international team of 300 researchers on Monday.

"It is important because what is going on there is what will happen on the rest of the planet," said Paal Prestrud, the head of the Norwegian Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) and vice president of ACIA.

Global warming could cause the Arctic ice cover to completely disappear in summer by the end of this century and threatens the species living in the ice field, like polar bears, the report produced for the Arctic Council warned.

Other species will meanwhile migrate north as temperatures rise.

"It's a paradox. The melting ice will increase the biodiversity but the Arctic species will be endangered," Prestrud said.

Indigenous Inuit hunters and Sami reindeer herders have begun complaining that they no longer are in a position to predict climatic changes and how much snow to expect in the short term.

According to one of the estimates used, the Arctic ice could melt away completely in warmer months as early as 2070.

Although the melting of the floating Arctic ice field will not cause sea levels to rise (ice takes more room than the water it contains), the melting of terrestrial glaciers is expected to push sea levels up by between 10 and 90 centimeters (between 3.9 and 35.4 inches), forcing many coastal populations to move.

The receding ice could also have some positive effects, researchers said, pointing out that over time it would enable the opening of a "northern passage" for maritime traffic between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans, allowing for shorter voyages compared to taking the route through the Suez channel.

In addition, researchers pointed out, the ice free area would open access to new fish species and to untapped mineral resources.

The Arctic region is home to a quarter of the world's total oil and gas resources.

"This is not only negative. It also creates possibilities. This depends on the point of view: an oil company would think this is a good thing, but an Inuit (indigenous) to the ice field would certainly be of another opinion," Prestrud said.

The Arctic Council will meet in Reykjavik this week to discuss the report.

The foreign ministers of the eight countries that make up the Council -- Canada, Finland, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States -- which alone account for about 30 percent of all human CO2 emissions -- are meanwhile scheduled to meet in the Icelandic capital on November 24 to discuss the political ramifications of the findings.

The report, which is the most detailed study ever done on the subject, does not make any specific recommendations but according to Prestrud it implicitly calls for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

"This report should strengthen efforts towards global emission reduction," he told AFP.

After receiving a copy of the study, Norwegian Environmental Minister Knut Arild Hareide reiterated the Scandinavian country's commitment to the United Nation's Kyoto climate change treaty, which aims for an approximately five percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels in the period 2008 to 2012.

"We need a Kyoto II, III, IV" to fulfil the UN climate change objectives of a 50 percent emission reduction over the next 30 years, he told AFP, adding that "the treaty alone is not enough. We need ambitious international treaties".

Russia last month decided to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, thus unblocking the treaty which needed the ratification of Russia or the United States to go into effect.

The United States has so far refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

All rights reserved. � 2004 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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