Following is an update on the positions of four players holding the key to the outcome of the UN climate talks which wrap on Friday:The core issues are curbs on carbon emissions; funding for poor countries badly exposed to climate change; and the legal architecture of the planned post-2012 climate pact.
Following is a snapshot of the negotiating landscape:
-- DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: The so-called Group of 77 and China bloc, gathering 130 nations, is demanding stiff, binding curbs in emissions by rich nations. Their official demand is a cut of at least 40 percent by 2020 compared with 1990 levels. They want a post-2012 extension of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and on Wednesday said they suspected rich parties of trying to undermine this treaty. Kyoto binds rich nations, but not developing ones, to emissions curbs. They are demanding details on plans to set up machinery for long-term finance, potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Within the developing-nation group, there are also two distinct associations:
- SMALL ISLAND STATES, which are clamouring for the world to cap warming at 1.5 degrees (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times, a figure rejected as unfeasible by many allies and rich countries.
- AFRICAN NATIONS, which say they will accept the 10 billion dollars offered in fast-start climate funds, provided 40 percent is earmarked for Africa. They also want long-term climate funds to reach 50 billion dollars annually by 2015 and 100 billion annually by 2020.
-- EMERGING GIANT ECONOMIES, namely China, India and Brazil, will be the problem polluters of tomorrow. They share the positions of other developing countries but are willing to promise voluntary measures that would brake their forecast surges in emissions. These pledges would not be liable to penalties. The giants are being squeezed, by rich countries, and increasingly by the poorest and most vulnerable, to make the pledges as ambitious as possible. Industrialised countries also demand their efforts be subject to international scrutiny, a major sticking point.
-- THE UNITED STATES under President Barack Obama is rolling back the climate policies of the George W. Bush era, during which US emissions surged. But domestic resistance, especially in Congress, has made it very hard to offer cuts in carbon pollution of more than a few percent compared with the 1990 benchmark. It is leading the charge to attach "measurable, reportable and verifiable" provisions to developing country pledges. It also remains outside the Kyoto Protocol, which hugely complicates the quest for a simple, one-treaty architecture. To sweeten the deal, it is under pressure to make a big contribution to "fast-track" funding for poor countries from 2010-2012.
-- THE EUROPEAN UNION casts itself as the good guy. The EU saved Kyoto after Bush abandoned it in 2001 and has unilaterally decided to cut its emissions by 20 percent by 2020 over 1990 levels, by 30 percent if others follow suit. Last week, it agreed to provide around a quarter of 10 billion dollars in annual "fast track funds". With this, the EU is looking to the United States especially to do more. But on Wednesday it was lukewarm about signing up to a new Kyoto round until China and the United States, the world's No. 1 and 2 polluters, which remain outside that pact, are tied to tougher emissions commitments. "The Protocol alone will only cover less than a third of global emissions," it said.
