With farmers still struggling to recover from a severe drought in 2002-03, the National Climate Centre (NCC) said there was a high probability Australia would experience an El Nino weather cycle, where warm Pacific currents fuel dry winds that prevent rainfall.

NCC senior forecaster Blair Trewin said preliminary figures showed 146.7 millimetres (5.8 inches) of rain fell across Australia between January and April, a millimetre lower than the previous driest fall over the same period in 1965.

"It's been a very dry monsoon season in the northern tropics and that has brought the average rainfall figures down," he told AFP.

"There's an elevated risk of El Nino, the next couple of weeks will be absolutely critical in seeing if we'll have another El Nino event.

"It would be unusual to have an El Nino so soon after the last one (in but not unprecedented."

Trewin said Australia had also experienced its warmest April on record, 2.7 degrees Celsius above the average temperature, heightening drought fears.

The last drought cost an estimated five billion dollars (3.9 billion US dollars) in rural exports and cut Australia's economic growth by about a third.

The government's agricultural forecaster ABARE declared it was over in June 2003 but many farmers argue it never really went away and say they have had the sustained rainfall needed to recover from the weather pattern dubbed "the big dry".

Authorities in New South Wales last month said that more than three quarters of Australia's most populous state was affected by drought and the federal government is looking at revamping its drought assistance program due to increased demand.

Despite the dry conditions, inhabitants of the world's most arid populated continent have done little to curb water usage, which remains 30 percent higher than the OECD average.

In response, cities experiencing falling dam levels have introduced strict water usage restriction and many are planning desalination plants to convert seawater for household useage.

New South Wales Premier Bob Carr said his government would this week consider a proposal for a two billion dollar desalination plant to service Sydney.

"We've got to secure our water supplies against the possibility of a long-term shift in rainfall patterns," he told reporters.

The dry weather has severely affected the rural economy, with a report last week estimating 50,000 jobs had been lost in regional towns.

A report by the government scientific organisation last year warned that water shortages would intensify because of global warming.

It said that by 2030 there would be reduced rainfall and around double the number of very hot summer days in some states.

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