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New study on the forecasting of extreme rainfall events in Mediterranean countries by Staff Writers Freiberg, Germany (SPX) Feb 24, 2021
Extreme rainfall has devastating consequences for societies and economies. Locations around the Mediterranean are frequently affected by such events, leading to landslides and floods. "It is, however, extremely challenging to forecast many days in advance when and where exactly heavy rainfall will occur. Thus, researchers strive to develop new tools to better predict extreme weather phenomena allowing for early warnings and adequate mitigation strategies", explains first author Nikolaos Mastrantonas, who has carried out the study as a PhD student within the EU-funded research project CAFE. The researchers analysed weather data from 1979 to today, grouping the daily weather into nine patterns of distinct atmospheric characteristics over the Mediterranean. The study shows that there is a strong relation between these nine patterns and the location of the extreme weather event. "We can now use the data to come up with a model that will help to better predict extreme rain in the Mediterranean", says Prof. Jorg Matschullat of TU Bergakademie Freiberg. The geoecologist supervises Nikolaos Mastrantonas' PhD and adds: "When it comes to climate, the Mediterranean Sea is a particularly interesting region as it is surrounded by large continents and mountain ranges. The regional climate of the area is also dependent on large-scale patterns over the Atlantic Ocean, the Balkans and the Black Sea".
Mountains create links across distant locations "Such conditions lead to extreme precipitation events at different subregions of the Mediterranean", says Nikolaos Mastrantonas. To name one example: A low-pressure system centred over the Bay of Biscay increases the probability of extreme rainfall over mountainous and coastal regions in Spain, Morocco, Italy, and even in the West Balkans more than sixfold. The team also found that mountains create a strong link between distant areas. In Central Western Italy, for example, three in every ten extremes happen simultaneously with extremes over Montenegro and Croatia, although almost 500 kilometres lie between these two areas. "This is a result of the Apennines that block a substantial part of the air flow, and frequently force the moisture to precipitate in the western part of Italy, and on the same day over Croatia", the young researcher explains.
New information helps to further develop forecasting models "As the next step of this work, we will quantify how reliable the state-of-the-art weather forecasting models are in predicting the identified nine patterns. Our intention is to incorporate such information into new forecasting products informing about extreme weather over the Mediterranean at sub-seasonal scales", Prof Jorg Matschullat clarifies.
Research Report: "Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large-scale atmospheric flow patterns"
Pioneering NASA mini weather satellite ends its mission Pasadena CA (JPL) Feb 09, 2021 RainCube, designed to study storms, was the first to fly a radar science instrument on a CubeSat. After nearly 2 1/2 years in orbit, a shoebox-size weather satellite phoned home one last time before plunging into Earth's atmosphere and burning up on Dec. 24, 2020. RainCube (Radar in a CubeSat) was a technology demonstration meant to show that shrinking a weather radar into a low-cost, miniature satellite called a CubeSat could provide science-quality data. RainCube was deployed on July 13, 2 ... read more
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