Nations gathering in Azerbaijan for crunch UN climate talks have pledged to "transition away" from fossil fuels and aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times.
Global CO2 pollution needs to be reduced dramatically this decade to reach this target, but the new findings from an international network of scientists at the Global Carbon Project showed that oil, gas and coal emissions continue to rise.
The research found that to keep the 1.5C target in sight, the world would now need to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by the late 2030s -- far earlier than most countries currently plan.
While scientists said renewable power and electric vehicles are helping to displace some fossil fuels, growth in emissions from gas and oil pushed global fossil fuel emissions higher this year.
Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, said the world was "frustratingly close" to a peak in its fossil fuel emissions.
"Renewables are growing strongly, electric vehicles are growing strongly, but still it's just not enough," he told reporters, adding that any peak in emissions would only be ascertained after several years of data.
The preliminary findings show global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels rising 0.8 percent in 2024 compared to last year, reaching a record of 37.4 billion tonnes.
The research is based on monthly figures and projections to the end of the year and could therefore be slightly higher or lower than the current estimates.
- 'Wake-up call' -
Researchers said increases in CO2 emissions from India as well as growth in international aviation drove emissions up, while emissions decreased in the European Union and the United States.
In China, which accounts for nearly a third of the global total, fossil fuel emissions are projected to tick up marginally in 2024, with increases in CO2 pollution from coal and gas.
"Oil has probably peaked in China, and that is thanks to the rapid rollout of electric vehicles," Peters said. "So these technologies do help."
Overall global CO2 pollution, which includes emissions from land use change like deforestation, was roughly flat at 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024.
This leaves the world with an available "budget" of 235 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions for a coin toss chance of curbing warming to 1.5C, scientists said, in an assessment that takes into account the current level of warming, as well as the future effects of other greenhouse gases.
That translates to six years at the current rate of CO2 emissions, or a steep reduction each year to get to net zero.
"The simple maths that we show here is... that you have to reach zero by the late 2030s," said Pierre Friedlingstein, chair in mathematical modelling of the climate system at the University of Exeter.
The research found that budding technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and permanently store it, for example in rock, accounted for a "negligible" amount of CO2 removal compared to nature-based processes like reforestation.
"This is a sobering wake-up call that the world is clearly not moving fast enough to reduce carbon emissions," said Graham Gordon, head of global advocacy at Christian Aid.
"Europe and the US have made welcome progress, but with 2024 projected to be the hottest year on record, no one can rest on their laurels."
The UN says 2024 is on track to be more than 1.5C hotter than the preindustrial average, although this does not amount to an immediate breach of the climate target, which measures temperatures over decades.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, whose energy-rich country is hosting the COP29 climate talks, on Tuesday repeated his insistence that oil, gas and other natural resources are a "gift of God".
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