The commitment of F-16s by the Netherlands and Denmark, with the authorisation of Washington, signifies a major political and diplomatic triumph for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who had previously convinced his Western allies to supply heavy tanks and missiles.
But even though the jets will bring new capabilities to Ukraine's war effort, they also increase the complexity of managing a conflict where aviation has yet to take centre stage in the battles.
- A Suitable Fighter -
Among the aircraft that could be delivered to Ukraine, the F-16 by American manufacturer Lockheed Martin is the one Kiev had been requesting for months from Western nations who were initially sceptical about supplying it.
Gareth Jennings, an aviation editor at the British private intelligence firm Janes, told said that "its radar and weapon systems are more of a match for the Sukhoi Su-35 and other types."
Armed with modern Western systems, F16s will not merely replenish the "critically depleted inventory" of the Ukrainian air force, but will also help Kiev "narrow the capability gap with the more advanced Russian aircraft."
Yuriy Ignat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, referred Monday to the need for 128 fighter aircraft to replace the country's ageing fleet, as well as training aircraft and transport planes
The new fighters will enable them to "respond to different challenges and strike different targets -- in particular, (enemy) aircraft, ground targets, and targets in the enemy's rear," he told Radio Liberty Ukraine.
- Intensive Training -
Using the F-16 in combat could be some way off, however, because it takes several months to train a pilot on the aircraft.
Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, told AFP that "even though Ukrainian personnel have many times excelled at training and fulfilled targets faster than expected, the task is daunting."
Other challenges span issues from aircraft maintenance to acquiring spare parts.
Justin Bronk from the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think-tank, believes there will be "heavy reliance on civilian contractors to supervise and provide on-the-job training to Ukrainian maintainers in-country."
These mostly Western contractors would be expected to work on F-16 bases inside Ukraine which "increases the political risk of Western contractors being killed by Russian (air) strikes," he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
On Friday, American General James Hecker, head of the US Air Force in Europe, underlined that patience would be required, even though Ukraine is desperate to send new planes into battle to reinforce its slow-moving counter-offensive against Russian forces.
"It takes a while to build a couple of squadrons of F-16s and to get their readiness high enough and their proficiency high enough. This could be four or five years down the road," Hecker said, according to the specialised defence website The War Zone.
- Limited Military Value -
Experts consulted by AFP suggested that the jets alone would not enable Ukraine to regain control over its airspace which neither side has dominated since the outbreak of war in February 2022.
In March, the US Congressional Research Service noted that combat aircraft had "not yet played a decisive role in the conflict and are unlikely to do so given Ukrainian and Russian capabilities."
"Both sides have employed advanced air defence systems that have limited the combat effectiveness of Russian and Ukrainian aircraft."
The objective from both sides is more about airspace denial -- preventing the other side from using the sky -- rather than attaining a costly and uncertain dominance.
"Neither one has been able to reach air supremacy without risking a large portion of their fleets -- in Ukraine's case, maybe all of it," added Klyszcz from the ICDS.
- A Political Victory -
Despite the operational complications, the political impact of the donations remain significant,
Klyszcz stressed that "the fact that these are donated instead of bought means that this much-needed acquisition will not drain the already strained defence funds further"
Pascal Ausseur, director general of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), a France-based think-tank, said that he saw the move by the Netherlands, Denmark and United States as "primarily a political signal".
"It's one more step in strengthening Western military assistance," he explained, adding: "If Western countries had refused, it would have given the impression that Europeans and Americans were weakening in their support.
"In the ongoing diplomatic battle, and on the ground, this holds immense importance."
Zelensky warmly welcomed the move, saying that "the work of politicians is unity" during an evening address.
"When unity becomes stronger, even things that seemed fantastic to someone before become achievable," he added.
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