Published in PLOS One, the study forecasts that DSM operations could worsen environmental indicators by as much as 13 percent under projected scenarios. The researchers categorize this level of degradation as having "great" significance, pointing to increased coastal exposure to risks, intensified pollution, and a loss of marine biodiversity.
"The risks associated with DSM extend well beyond environmental degradation-they pose significant hazards for marine ecosystems, coastal and Indigenous communities, and for businesses, in particular, the insurance industry," said Dr. Rashid Sumaila, professor at UBC's Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, who served as senior author of the study.
Dr. Sumaila emphasized that the economic consequences are potentially severe. "Our analysis indicated a surge in risk factors will lead to a large increase in economic risks, with an estimated 11 percent rise in threats, including contractual violations and loss and profitability risks, which could have major implications for insurers, as they directly impact risk assessment models and industry stability."
Lead author Dr. Lubna Alam, a research associate at the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and associate fellow at the National University of Malaysia, pointed to existing disruptions in coastal insurance markets driven by climate change, such as those occurring in hurricane-prone areas like Florida. "If the flood risk in your area surges up by 11 percent, it would have a chilling effect on insurance companies," said Dr. Alam. "That's exactly the kind of warning this 11 percent increase signals for nature. And nature, unfortunately, cannot renegotiate its premiums."
Dr. Sumaila drew parallels between DSM risks and the devastating aftermath of oil spills in developed nations. He cited the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989 and the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010 as examples of how marine catastrophes can inflict long-lasting environmental and financial damage. "These events took place in countries with considerable resources. Imagine the scale of disruption if similar incidents occurred near SIDS, which are far more vulnerable and closer to projected DSM zones," he said.
Co-author K. Pradhoshini, an independent researcher from India, noted that small island nations are already struggling with insurance accessibility due to increasing risk levels. "Many island nations are already facing reduced participation from private insurers, forcing governments to provide state-backed insurance with limited coverage. In such a scenario, a high-risk score, as observed through our study, can negatively impact a country's sovereign credit rating, increasing borrowing costs. This makes it harder for small island states to secure international funding for infrastructure and climate adaptation projects."
The report underscores the vulnerability of key sectors like fisheries and tourism, which are vital to many SIDS economies. "If risk scores rise due to climate threats or ecosystem degradation from DSM, businesses may suffer losses, leading to employment instability, discouragement of investment, limitations on financial growth, and economic instability," Pradhoshini added.
Dr. Sumaila further noted that DSM is being eyed for implementation in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean, a region vital to global tuna stocks. "Rising ocean temperatures are already displacing tuna species, shrinking catch yields in the exclusive economic zones of Pacific SIDS. This could result in losses of up to $140 million annually by 2050. DSM activities could exacerbate the problem by disturbing habitats through sediment plumes, noise and light pollution, and metal-laden water discharges."
In light of these risks, the study calls for a pivot toward circular economy models, emphasizing recycling and urban mining as more sustainable alternatives. "Recently, researchers claim to have developed a process to recover nearly all of the lithium from used electric vehicle batteries for recycling," noted Dr. Sumaila. "This is an example of other technologies that would help meet the growing demand for essential materials while dramatically reducing environmental and social risks."
He concluded: "Circular solutions can maximize our resource efficiency, extending the lifecycle of materials and promoting the reuse and recycling of existing stock of metals already in circulation. This approach will not only decrease the demand for virgin minerals, but also minimizes waste, leading to a substantial reduction in the overall environmental footprint."
Research Report:Deep-sea mining and its risks for social-ecological systems: Insights from simulation-based analyses
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