Dark Skies Enable New Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Reducing Impact Probability

Dark Skies Enable New Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Reducing Impact Probability
by Clarence Oxford
Los Angeles CA (SPX) Feb 20, 2025

With the return of darker skies following a period of bright full moon conditions, astronomers have resumed tracking asteroid 2024 YR4. Ground-based telescopes rely on dark skies to detect asteroids, which can appear extremely faint. During a full moon, the brightness of the night sky makes it difficult to observe these small celestial objects.

NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has processed new observational data submitted to the Minor Planet Center. On Feb. 18, the estimated probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, was calculated at 3.1%-the highest probability ever recorded for an asteroid of this size or larger. However, updated observations from overnight tracking on Feb. 19 have refined this probability downward to 1.5%.

Each additional night of observations enhances astronomers' ability to predict the asteroid's potential trajectory in 2032. The ongoing analysis highlights the critical need for continued data collection, which allows planetary defense specialists to assess and manage potential risks to Earth more accurately. NASA anticipates further refinement of the asteroid's impact probability as additional tracking data is gathered in the coming days and weeks.

These recent measurements have further constrained uncertainties in the asteroid's projected path. The yellow markers in the accompanying graphics illustrate possible locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032. As astronomers continue monitoring its movement, this zone of potential locations will continue to narrow. For the impact probability to reach zero, Earth would need to be ruled out from the asteroid's range of possible positions on that date.

Additionally, calculations indicate a smaller possibility that asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon, with a current estimated impact probability of 0.8%.

NASA's upcoming Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission, scheduled for launch no earlier than September 2027, will enhance asteroid detection capabilities by leveraging infrared technology. While asteroids and comets may be difficult to spot in visible light, they emit infrared radiation as they absorb solar heat. The NEO Surveyor's space-based vantage point will complement observations from ground-based telescopes, significantly improving the detection and tracking of previously unknown asteroids.