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Arctic's record warming driving broad environment change; infrastructure risks
By Ivan COURONNE, with Kerry SHERIDAN in Tampa
Washington (AFP) Dec 11, 2018

Permafrost thaw threatens 70 percent of Arctic infrastructure: study
Tokyo (AFP) Dec 11, 2018 - A warming climate is thawing permafrost and up to 70 percent of infrastructure in the Arctic region is at risk, including key oil and gas fields, a new study said Wednesday.

Researchers used detailed information on infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost zone to model with unprecedented detail just how many buildings, roads, railways and other construction could be at risk by 2050.

"The magnitude of the threat was in a way surprising," said lead author Jan Hjort, a professor of physical geography at Finland's University of Oulu.

"Especially that around 70 percent of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain is in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost," he told AFP.

"By 2050, 3.6 million people... may be affected by damage to infrastructure affected by permafrost thaw," adds the study, published in the Nature Communications journal.

It also warns that nearly half the key oil and natural gas fields in the Russian Arctic are in areas with "high hazard potential" because of thawing by 2050.

And even if global leaders can keep to the promises made in the Paris climate accord, the study says the infrastructure risks up to 2050 will be the same.

However, keeping warming below 2C above pre-industrial levels is likely to reduce the potential devastation that could come beyond 2050, the authors said.

"Maybe these results can be taken as 'wake-up calls,'" said Hjort, calling for more local-scale risk assessments to better understand the kind of damage that might result from permafrost thaw.

Permafrost -- soil that is frozen, although not necessarily permanently as its name implies -- is found mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, where it covers about a quarter of exposed land and is generally thousands of years old.

It covers a wide belt between the Arctic Circle and boreal forests, spanning Alaska, Canada, northern Europe and Russia.

It exists to a lesser degree in the Southern Hemisphere, where there is less ground to freeze, including in the South American Andes and below Antarctica.

In total, around 65 percent of Russian territory is covered by permafrost and the country is already wrestling with the impact of thawing.

In the Siberian city of Yakutsk, buildings have started to sag and crack as the ground literally shifts beneath them.

This year, Yakutia -- the region where Yakutsk is located -- passed a permafrost protection law, and is lobbying Moscow to take measures on a national level.

The law calls for the monitoring and prevention of irreversible loss of permafrost.

In Russia, researchers are looking at ways to keep the ground frozen as the atmosphere warms, but the study warns that "their economic cost may be prohibitive at regional scales".

It urges further work to better understand which parts of infrastructure in the affected regions are most at risk, so targeted action can be taken to mitigate and protect against the consequences of thawing.

Global warming is heating the Arctic at a record pace, driving broad environmental changes across the planet, including extreme storms in the United States and Europe, a major US scientific report said Tuesday.

Persistent heat records have assaulted the fragile Arctic for each of the past five years -- a record-long warming streak, said the 2018 Arctic Report Card, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The mounting heat in the north is upsetting typical weather patterns, a trend that "coincides" with severe winter storms in the eastern United States and an extreme cold snap in Europe in March, it said.

"Continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean are driving broad change in the environmental system in predicted and, also, unexpected ways," warned the report.

"New and rapidly emerging threats are taking form and highlighting the level of uncertainty in the breadth of environmental change that is to come."

Emily Osborne, program manager of NOAA's Arctic Research Program, told reporters the Arctic "is experiencing the most unprecedented transition in human history."

The report was released at the American Geophysical Union's annual conference in Washington, just weeks after another damning climate assessment by federal scientists which US President Donald Trump dismissed, saying he did not "believe" it.

Asked by reporters if he had personally briefed Trump on the latest Arctic findings, NOAA acting administrator Timothy Gallaudet said he had not, but he insisted that NOAA has the White House's support when it comes to scientific research.

- Temperature records -

Arctic air temperatures for the past five years, from 2014 to 2018, "have exceeded all previous records since 1900," when record-keeping began, said the peer-reviewed report compiled by 81 scientists working for governments and academia in 12 nations.

This warming trend "is unlike any other period on record," it said.

During the latest period studied, October 2017 through September 2018, annual average temperature in the Arctic was 3.1 Fahrenheit (1.7 Celsius) higher than the 1981-2010 average.

"The year 2018 was the second warmest year on record in the Arctic since 1900 (after 2016)," it said.

The Arctic also saw the second-lowest overall sea-ice coverage and the lowest recorded winter ice in the Bering Sea.

Another key measure of ice cover is its age, and the old, thick kind is rapidly disappearing across the Arctic.

Last year, old ice made up less than one percent of the ice pack.

Over the past 33 years, very old Arctic ice has declined by 95 percent.

- Jet stream -

The Arctic continues to heat up at twice the rate of the rest of the planet, but the effects are far from isolated, and are now spilling over into the mid-latitudes.

That's because a warmer Arctic reduces the north-south temperature difference, which provides the main fuel for the polar jet stream, or a river of strong wind, at levels where jet aircraft fly, NOAA said.

In this warming environment, the jet stream has become wavier, a pattern that "allows warm air to penetrate farther north and cold air to plunge farther south, compared to when the jet is strong and relatively straight," said the report.

Scientist now see evidence that this changing jet stream may be sparking extreme storms.

Examples include "the heat wave at the North Pole in autumn 2017, a swarm of severe winter storms in the eastern United States in 2018, and the extreme cold outbreak in Europe in March 2018 known as the 'Beast from the East.'"

- Reindeer, marine life -

Meanwhile, warmer Arctic temperatures are wreaking havoc on the Arctic ecosystem, decimating reindeer and caribou populations, allowing harmful algae blooms to move northward and sickening marine life, said the report, now in its 13th year.

"Considerable concentrations of algal toxins have been found in the tissues of Arctic clams, seals, walrus, and whales and other marine organisms," it said.

Even though melting ice has freed up more land for grazing, herds of caribou and wild reindeer across the Arctic tundra have declined by 56 percent over the last two decades, cutting populations from 4.7 million to 2.1 million.

"The long-term warming trend may be taking a toll on some of the Arctic's most majestic animals," said Howard Epstein, professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.

Scientists attribute the decline to increased frequency of drought, which affects quality of the tundra, and longer and hotter summers which can lead to more parasites.

Another new focus of the report involved the emerging threat of marine microplastics, which scientists have discovered are accumulating in the Arctic at higher concentrations than anywhere else in the world.

"This pollution -- from plastics produced and discarded in more populated areas of the world -- is likely traveling with ocean currents to the Arctic," said Karen Frey, professor of geography at Clark University.

Microplastic contamination has increased over the last decade, and is a concern because seabirds and marine life can ingest debris, sickening them and interfering with a key food and income source for people who consume them, she said.


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ICE WORLD
Ice is a lifeline for the world's coldest region
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Innokenty Tobonov sinks his harpoon into a long block of ice while his helpers expertly push it out of freezing lake waters onto the snow-dusted surface before sliding it towards an idling tractor. After an hour of cutting ice blocks out of the lake in temperatures of minus 41 degrees Celsius (minus 42 Fahrenheit), cold vapour has frosted his eyelashes. But this is no excuse for a break as the group hurries to extract a winter's worth of frozen drinking water for an elderly neighbour. Yak ... read more

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