. 24/7 Space News .
Analysis Pointed talk of Mideast missiles
WASHINGTON, (UPI) July 23 , 2004 -

The prospect has been raised that Iran's acquisition of weapons could spark widespread proliferation in the Middle East as previously non-nuclear states reconsider their strategic options.

Mitchell B. Reiss, director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department, said Iran could send an alarming signal to other countries, causing them to rethink their membership of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

The comments came at the launch of a new book, The Nuclear Tipping Point, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington Wednesday. Reiss co-edited the book, a collaboration of foreign policy experts and former government officials.

Even Saudi Arabia, outwardly a leading advocate of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, might feel the need to counter-balance a nuclear Iran, said Thomas W. Lippman -- adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East correspondent for the Washington Post -- speaking at CSIS.

The kingdom does not appear to be seeking nuclear weapons at present, said Lippman, though it is a very closed society with decisions made by a small group of people, the inner-circle of the royal family. Even American officials, he said, do not seem to know what Saudi Arabia's nuclear policy really is.

Amid Saudia Arabia's internal turmoil, security relations with the United States could erode further, Lippman continued, leading the Saudi government to conclude they need another security arrangement, perhaps by purchasing or renting nuclear weapons from Pakistan or North Korea.

There has been increasing speculation about Saudi aspirations to a nuclear deterrent while the crisis in the Middle East mounts. In September 2003, London's Guardian newspaper reported on a secret strategy paper allegedly considered at the highest levels, which laid out three strategy options: developing nuclear capability, establishing a protection alliance with another nuclear state, or reaching an agreement on a non-nuclear Middle East.

With a heavily armed and security-conscious Israel thought to possess as many as 400 nuclear missiles, the latter option seems highly improbable.

A high-ranking Pakistani insider told United Press International in October that Saudi Arabia had agreed to a nuclear pact with Pakistan to exchange weapons technology for cheap oil.

The Pakistani source, who has a long record of providing reliable information, said, future events will confirm that Pakistan has agreed to provide (Saudi Arabia) with the wherewithal for a nuclear deterrent. Both countries, he said, felt the age of non-proliferation was coming to an end.

Saudi Arabia has strenuously denied both claims.

The strong rhetorical non-nuclear position of Syria also does not necessarily match its national security posture, said Ellen Laipson, co-author and former acting assistant director of central intelligence for analysis and a veteran of the National Security Council and State Department.

Although Syria is not currently opting for any robust, rapid acquisition of nuclear capability, said Laipson, it has invested heavily in other WMDs, endowing it with comparable military potential to some nuclear states.

Syria, she notes, also feels an acute sense of vulnerability in security terms, being neighbored on almost all sides by stronger nations, and resembling more than any other Middle Eastern country the Iraq we didn't like.

This sense of insecurity, say experts, is something that needs to be combated by the U.S. and the international community. A nuclear Iran, combined with an erosion of relations, could lead even Egypt, now seen as an unlikely nuclear candidate, to seek strategic deterrents, said Robert Einhorn, co-editor and former assistant secretary of state for non-proliferation.

Similarly Turkey, which has flirted with nuclear development in the past, cannot be taken for granted unless it feels safely enmeshed in the international system, said Leon Fuerth, co-author and formerly national security adviser to Vice President Al Gore.

A rejection by the European Union would have profound political and psychological effects on Turkey, he said, as could a United States visibly backing off from NATO or downgrading its defensive alliance with the country. Such changes in the strategic environment, he continued, could well prompt a rethinking of many Turkish policies, especially if a conflict with Iran over Kurdistan should develop.

In our highly unstable climate, said Einhorn, we must think seriously about this acute regional security threat. There is a tendency, he said, to focus on the hardest and most obvious cases, such as Iran and North Korea, but there also must be a conscious emphasis on those countries which may in coming years be tempted to upgrade their weapons status.

Relations with the United States are crucial in remaining non-nuclear, he said. All countries make calculations of benefit and risk when it comes to nuclear development, he explained. At the moment, the balance in most cases points to staying non-nuclear, particularly if the protection of the United States seems assured.

But, he said, if strains develop in bilateral relations with the U.S., the incentive to pursue independent nuclear capabilities grows.

The tipping point phenomenon, where the benefits of capability start to outweigh the risks, could then occur.

There has been an increasing sense of pessimism over proliferation in recent years, with much speculation that the non-proliferation treaty may be crumbling.

In 2001, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told a congressional hearing that he did not believe it was possible to stop nuclear proliferation.

We have to learn to live in that kind of world, he said.

The experts Friday at CSIS maintained that the picture is not yet that bleak, but cite it as a real possibility if we do not apply the necessary vigilance.

Einhorn recommended a variety of practical measures, such as making nuclear development more difficult, more time-consuming and expensive. The black market must be eradicated, he said, and controls tightened. In addition, U.S. intelligence must be improved, and verification methods strengthened.

In the immediate future, reining in Iran's ambitions and pulling back on North Korea's development, which could in turn prompt proliferation in other North Asian countries such as Japan, is also critical.

The prospect of a world with an increasing number of nuclear powers is very real, but not inevitable, he stressed.

The warning was there: The nuclear tipping point may not have been reached, but unless counter-efforts increase, it may not be too far off.

All rights reserved. Copyright 2015 by United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of by United Press International.