Having successfully hoisted Japan's unmanned shuttle experiment, Hyflex, this February, the Optical Inter-orbit Communications Test Satellite (OICETS) mission planned for 1998 should have been the J-1's second and final outing.

That mission was meant to conduct S-band inter-orbit communications tests with the European Space Agency's Artemis satellite. But the Europeans have delayed the Artemis launch until 2000, giving Japanese engineers time to redevelop the J-1. The key redevelopment goals would be to make the J-1 more cost effective and commercially viable for the next century, or at least make it an affordable option for a NASDA facing leaner times.

Still, the rocket's prospects hinge on a number of threads; possible budget restrictions, internal discord within NASDA over the necessity of the rocket, and whether or not Japan will be able to utilize low-cost carbon fiber casing technology from the United States.

From the beginning, the J-1 was to be a low cost rocket capable of delivering a 2-ton payload into low Earth orbit. To accomplish this, prime contractor Nissan Aerospace combined the upper stages of the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) M-3S2 and a first stage solid rocket booster from the H-2 to build one small rocket. Being a hybrid, NASDA itself has never denied that the J-1 was anything more than a stop-gap, but the rocket's makers are quick to jump to its defense.

Tatsuro Asai, Nissan Aerospace's general manager, sees the J-1 as a successful demonstration of technology migration of a maturing Japanese space industry. "J-1 development was successful in two aspects; J-1 was the first achievement of the cooperation of NASDA and ISAS and (by the fact that) it was integrated from existing launchers," he said. Nissan manufactures the bulk of the rocket, except the external venire engine for roll control in the first stage made by Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.

"For our rocket group, we thought it essential to develop a small satellite launcher, especially for polar orbits," said Toshiaki Sato, an associate senior engineer in NASDA's launch vehicle systems department.

The J-1's second potential savior is the Mission Demonstration Satellite Program (MDS), which is due to step up to two launches a year after 2002, officials said. The program, which will utilize three satellite bus systems to be developed by Mitsubishi Electric, will require cheap small-to-medium launchers.

NASDA officially downgrades the chances of the J-1 as an MDS launcher as "possible," though Toru Shimizu, deputy director of the launch vehicle systems department, speculated that his launch vehicle systems group might put in a bid for $20 million in the FY 1998 budget to begin preparations.

Sato insists the J-1 is being looked into as a likely candidate. "There will be a big demand for small satellite missions. According to our survey, there will also be a need for launchers for small 500kg, 500km class communication satellites" he said.

Perhaps the most definite indication of the J-1's likely future comes from Nissan, which is keen to enter the international commercial launch vehicle provider market next century, according to Yoshifumi Abe, a manager in Nissan's Aerospace Division. "We haven't performed definite market research, and this is just my thinking, but the J-1 will be especially needed for in-orbit experiments for cutting-edge technologies. Of course, the H-2 has a dual launch mode but a lot of users don't like dual launch, so there will also be a need for a dedicated launcher to meet specific orbit requirements," added Nissan Aerospace's Asai.

The breathing time allowed by the OICETS delay has given Nissan and NASDA time to give the rocket more than a face-lift. Money saving technological improvements are planned literally form top to bottom, starting at the rocket's first stage and ending with its avionics.

"We intend to replace the first stage completely with the SRB-A (from the H-2A) and I expect that will significantly improve our cost-effectiveness," said Asai.

The original development program cost climbed to about $100 million, including the first launch this February, said Sato, who estimated cost per launch at $45 million for the unimproved version.

Cost-cutting is the number one priority, Sato said. On what scale this can be achieved, no-one is certain. NASDA refrained from giving an estimate, but Asai was willing to say that he thought it might be around 50 percent, if vital carbon fiber rocket casing can be imported by Thiokol Corp.

The deal is still under scrutiny by a U.S. State Department wary of exporting technology with military applications. The subject is also a pretty sore one at NASDA, which is waiting patiently for a decision, officials have said off the record. "It depends on the U.S. government," said Shimizu.

Carbon fiber technology is the most vital component to the rocket's future, said Asai, who thought its incorporation would "roughly double" the rocket's technical performance. "The composite motor case is the key element. If we in Japan would like to get into the commercial market, it's essential," he said.

"Unfortunately we don't have any consensus about the future of the rocket," said Shimizu, who suggested that NASDA is divided over the relevance of the rocket. NASDA faces the prospect of budget restrictions that look certain to favor premium projects such as the Japan Experiment Module and the H-2A development over the J-1.

11.21.96