|
. | . |
|
by Staff Writers Zurich, Switzerland (SPX) Aug 18, 2015
Seasonal water shortages already occur in the Central Andes of Peru and Bolivia. By the end of the century, precipitation could fall by up to 30% according to an international team of researchers led by the University of Zurich. In a first for this region, the team compared current climate data with future climate scenarios and data extending back to pre-Inca times. The population in the Central Andes already faces water shortages today. Now geographers at the University of Zurich have collaborated with Swiss and South American researchers to show that precipitation in the rainy season could drop noticeably - and this could happen within the next twenty years. In contrast to conventional research projects, which often look at climate forecasts in isolation, the UZH scientists compared data taken from tree rings and ice cores from the past 1,000 years with model calculations for the future. Their research found that current precipitation is within the normal fluctuation range for recent centuries. But this is projected to change dramatically by the end of the century: "Our model simulations suggest that the probability of dry years between 2071 and 2100 will be four times higher than in the pre-industrial era", says lead author Raphael Neukom.
Stronger westerly winds lead to more aridity These winds can be simulated much more reliably than the precipitation itself", says Raphael Neukom. It is highly probable that the increase in greenhouse gases will strengthen the westerly winds over the Central Andes. But stronger westerly winds in the upper troposphere reduce the inflow of humid air from the Amazon region into the Andes and thus lead to greater aridity."
Clear long-term trend According to Christian Huggel, there is therefore an urgent need to introduce affordable and low-risk measures that will adapt the region to the new climate conditions. Peruvian-Swiss projects are testing such measures, which include, for example, the collection of rainwater in artificial ponds. "The results of the basic research are coming at just the right time for deliberations on the dimensions of such ponds", concludes Christian Huggel. Raphael Neukom, Mario Rohrer, Pierluigi Calanca, Nadine Salzmann, Christian Huggel, Delia Acuna, Duncan A Christie and Mariano S Morales. Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100. Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017
Related Links University of Zurich Water News - Science, Technology and Politics
|
|
The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service. |