Coinciding with the Satellite 2017 Conference and Exhibition held at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, DC during March 6-9, 2017, Teal Group space analysts have identified 8,607 satellites, probes and capsules to be built and launched to earth or deep space orbits between 2017 and 2036. They estimate the value of these space payloads at more than $250 billion.

The payload count for 2017-2036 reflects a 41% increase compared to the 5,095 payloads identified last year for 2016-2035 and 46.5% more than the 4,067 payloads for the 20-year look forward in 2015. The trend in the future market for space payloads continues upward, and it is being driven largely by the introduction of thousands of small, nano and pico (mainly "Cubesats") commercial satellites designed to provide everything from broadband and mobile communications to meteorological, imaging and position location and tracking services.

Teal analysts identify 443 payloads "proposed" for launch in 2017, followed by 583 in 2018; 727 in 2019; 926 in 2020; 731 in 2021; 1,222 in 2022; 1,201 in 2023; 968 in 2024; 730 in 2025; and 298 in 2026.

"Our mission model is a market forecasting tool," said Teal Group senior space analyst Marco Caceres. "I first created it back in 1992 as a complement to our World Space Systems Briefing service to help us understand what the space market might look like over the next 20 years."

Teal Group publishes its detailed space payload numbers in a daily-updated online spreadsheet known as the Worldwide Mission Model Online. (Contact regional representatives at www.tealgroup.com)

In their latest update by spacecraft type, Teal analysts classified 6,786 (79%) of the payloads as commercial, 921 (11%) as civil (government non-military), 579 (6.5%) as military, and 321 (3.5%) as university and non-profit.

Of the payloads, more than 75% of them are proposed for low earth orbits (LEO); 17% for medium earth orbits (MEO); 6% to geostationary orbits (GEO); and the rest to deep space or elliptical orbits. "It's going to get extremely crowded at LEO," said Caceres.

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