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by Debalina Ghoshal, Centre for Air Power Studies New Delhi, India (SPX) Aug 08, 2014
As the P5+1 nuclear deal is progressing and signs of progress with the deal is reflected in Iran "neutralising" half of its higher enriched uranium, yet Western apprehensions on Iran's ability to possibly develop nuclear weapons continue. Enrichment of uranium below 20% level makes it difficult for states to develop nuclear weapons. The deal exactly demanded that Iran should keep its uranium enrichment restricted to not more than 5%. This served as a great relief for the West. Nuclear weapons though need 90% of uranium enrichment; Iran's capability of being able to enrich uranium up to 20% could have resulted in its developing nuclear weapons. All is well that ends well, and according to IAEA reports, Iran is showing positive signs in their nuclear program by keeping to its words of pursuing nuclear program for peaceful purposes. It would be wrong to say that such positive steps have completely taken the West into confidence, however, efforts should also be taken by the West to not to ruin the progress of the deal due to unwanted apprehensions at this juncture. Amidst many issues that could arise during the progress of the deal, one important issue that the West has been concerned about is the issue of ballistic missile developments in Tehran. Iran has persistently continued with its ballistic missile development program which it considers vital for its self defence. Iran claims that these missiles are to boost its conventional capabilities not only to strengthen its defence against adversaries but also as a deterrence against growing missile capabilities of other states like Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the region and with a weak air-force, Iran's main bet lies on missiles. At present, Iran's ballistic missile arsenal includes short range, medium range and intermediate range ballistic missiles. These include Shahab1 with range of 300-750kms, Fateh with 200kms, the 750kms range Fajr the Scud category missiles, and the Chinese M-11s also called the Tondars in the short range category. Amongst medium range ballistic missiles, Iran's arsenal can boast of the Ghadr with range of 1800-2000kms, Ashura with a range of 2000kms and Shahab 3 with range of 1200-1900kms. According to reports, Ashura is able to reach targets in Middle East, Turkey and southern Europe. Amongst intermediate range ballistic missile systems, Iran possesses the 2500-4000kms range Musudan ballistic missiles which are reported to be able to carry nuclear warheads. With Shahab 5 and Shahab 6 once developed and if nuclear capable, Iran could not only possess the capability of becoming a regional nuclear power but also allow it to have a global reach. The issue of ballistic missiles cannot be ignored completely, since not only can these missiles carry nuclear warheads, but they could also lead to proliferation challenges in the future. UNSC Resolutions have been passed time and again to curb Iran's ballistic missiles development. There have been five UNSC Resolutions passed till date which include 1737 in 2006, 1747 in 2007, 1803 and later 1835 in 2008, 1929 in 2010. Despite these UNSC Resolutions, Iran has defied these resolutions and has continued with its ballistic missile development program. Thus, there was also a suggestion to raise the issue of Iran's ballistic missile development in the nuclear deal itself. At such a juncture, where the deal lies at a critical stage, such a step of including ballistic missiles as a part of the nuclear deal could seriously aggravate the progress of the nuclear deal. It could prevent Iran from further cooperating with the P5+1 countries regarding the deal. Iran is a party to the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which does not deal with the issue of ballistic missiles. Hence, any pressure to curb Iran's missile development program could also result in Iran withdrawing from the NPT. The issue of ballistic missiles must be kept separate from that of the nuclear deal given the seriousness of the nuclear issue in Iran. Any effort to coerce Iran to curb its missile capabilities could be taken misconstrued by Iran as an attempt to curb its military capabilities too. Therefore, there should be a separate framework which could a find a solution to the ballistic missile issue which preferably should be a regional framework.
Related Links Centre for Air Power Studies Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com All about missiles at SpaceWar.com Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
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