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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Over next two weeks, New York global epicenter of climate fight
By Issam AHMED
New York (AFP) Sept 17, 2019

Paris promises: where the world's biggest polluters stand
New York (AFP) Sept 17, 2019 - UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has convened a major new climate summit on September 23 because the world's main polluters remain well behind their goals as laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Here are where the main players stand in relation to the goals they had set for themselves.

- China -

China is on track to meet or surpass its goal for carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030.

Beijing has also set a goal of 20 percent of its future energy mix to come from non-fossil fuels (renewable and nuclear). This goal appears more distant.

- United States -

Under former president Barack Obama, the US committed to reducing its emissions from 26 to 28 percent by 2025 compared to 2005.

But his successor Donald Trump announced in 2017 he would be leaving the Paris agreement (though the US remains a part until 2020), and immediately committed to tearing Obama's plan apart, rolling back limits on coal-fired plants, auto emissions and more.

- European Union -

The EU is committed to a 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.

The European Commission predicts that this objective will be exceeded, but wants its member states to adopt a more ambitious goal: zero net emissions by 2050.

Member countries have yet to achieve a consensus and negotiations continue.

- Carbon neutral goals -

Two small countries, Bhutan and Suriname, are already carbon neutral, according to a study by Britain's Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit published in June.

Several others have announced their intention to reach that objective by 2050 or earlier.

Here is a list of those who have codified that goal into their law, or have committed to it as part of their Paris agreement objectives, according to the site climatechangenews.com:

By 2030: Norway and Uruguay

By 2045: Sweden and the US state of California

By 2050: Fiji, France (which holds its final vote on the matter in its upper house in September) and the United Kingdom

But adopting this objective does not signify a country is on track to meet it, as shown by the example of France.

A government body ruled in June that the actions undertaken thus far were "insufficient".

Environmentalists from around the world converge this week on New York for protests and an unprecedented youth summit aimed at pressuring global leaders at the UN to ramp up their carbon reduction commitments.

The headline event takes place September 23 when UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will likely re-state four key demands: quit new coal by 2020, achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, deliver enhanced climate plans next year and end fossil fuel subsidies.

Ahead of that, though, students from New York's more than 1,700 schools will pour into the streets of the United States' biggest city for Friday's global climate strike, joined by potentially millions of others worldwide, including employees from major companies such as Amazon and trade unionists.

And on Saturday, Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg, along with 500 other teen activists, will convene for the first ever Youth Climate Summit at the UN headquarters, a testament to the growing power of a movement that has succeeded in popularizing the term "climate emergency" over the past year.

That phrase has been taken up by Guterres, who has called Monday's main summit because the world's major polluters remain far behind their pledges in the 2015 Paris agreement to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions enough to prevent climate catastrophe.

The secretary-general "has been very clear that he's asking countries to come to New York next week not to give flowery speeches, but to have concrete plans for how they intend to bring their national commitments in line with the science," Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists, told AFP.

The Paris agreement saw countries pledge to limit the rise in the average temperature of the Earth to two degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, and if possible 1.5 degrees Celsius.

To meet the 1.5 degrees goal, the world must achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and greenhouse gas emissions need to fall starting next year, according to a landmark report issued last October by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The numbers so far are bleak.

Carbon dioxide emissions were their highest ever level in 2018; July 2019 was the hottest month in history, and the last four years have been the Earth's hottest on record.

Meanwhile, NASA data showed ice at both poles shrank to the lowest ever levels in 2019.

- 'A marathon, not a sprint' -

According to Meyer, some 60 or so countries have indicated they intend to announce that they will enhance their climate commitments under Paris.

Crucially, however, these don't include the major emitters -- the countries of the G20 which collectively represent over 80 percent of global emissions.

"This is a marathon, not a sprint," Meyer said. "Monday is not the be all and end all, though it's a very important political moment."

The US will be on the sidelines of the summit after announcing its withdrawal from the Paris agreement in 2017 under the leadership of President Donald Trump -- but remains a signatory until November 4, 2020, a day after the next presidential election.

Countries such as Brazil under the leadership of right-winger Jair Bolsonaro are pressing full speed ahead with deforestation plans while Australia is committing to more coal extraction.

Others, like China, the EU, and Canada, have signaled they are committed, but their actions have so far fallen well short of their rhetoric.

At the moment, only Morocco and Gambia have "compatible" commitments with the objective of the 2015 Paris agreement, according to the World Resource Institute's Climate Action Tracker.

That hasn't deterred the optimism of many of the youth activists participating in Saturday's summit.

"Greta has opened a door," Come Girschig, a 24-year-old from France, told AFP. But, he said, he was eager for the movement to develop concrete proposals.

"It's very good that the youth are mobilized on the streets, calling themselves anti-capitalists, and wanting to change the system, but what do we replace it with?"

The summits also come at a time when there is increasing recognition that climate change is a human rights issue, Amnesty International chief Kumi Naidoo told AFP.

"We have to be very clear that the biggest intergenerational violation of human rights is what we are seeing right now with the current adult political and business leadership are governing as if we don't have children and grandchildren coming after us," he said.

"Climate change threatens the very ability of human beings to exist on this planet and with no human beings are no human rights."


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Scientists, students, activists plan global strike ahead of UN climate summit
Washington (UPI) Sep 13, 2019
Environmental activists, student leaders, scientists and other organizers held a press conference this week to discuss their plans for next week's global climate strike. Next Friday, Sept. 20, millions of people are planning to walk out of their homes, workplaces and classrooms and take to the streets to demand action of climate change. The action is planned for three days before the United Nations holds its Climate Action Summit on Sept. 23 in New York. As CO2 emissions continue ... read more

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