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Landslide warnings as Japan digs through rain devastation By Hiroshi HIYAMA Kumano , Japan (AFP) July 9, 2018
Desperate relatives braced for bad news Monday as rescuers dug through landslides in the wake of severe floods that have killed more than 100 people and left swathes of central and western Japan under water. With the toll mounting, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cancelled a four-country foreign trip, the government's top spokesman said. As the floods receded, emergency workers reached previously cut-off places where authorities fear they could find more bodies in the wreckage of homes devastated by rivers of mud and debris. "I have asked my family to prepare for the worst," said Kosuke Kiyohara, 38, as he waited for word of his sister and her two young sons. "I can't reach her phone," he told AFP, sitting across from a house that had been ripped apart and tossed on its side by a huge landslide. Rescue workers said it was still possible that survivors could be found, but acknowledged the odds were getting longer. "It has been three days... It's possible that survivors will be found, but as the days pass the likelihood becomes slimmer," a soldier at the scene told AFP. At the end of last week rivers engorged by more than a metre (three feet) of rain burst their banks, engulfing entire villages and forcing people on to rooftops to await evacuation by helicopter. Hillsides gave way under the weight of water, with deadly landslides crushing wooden houses and erasing roads. The government said at least 103 people had been killed, and with many people still missing, the tally was expected to rise further. - Search for survivors - Government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said 73,000 police, firemen and troops were taking part in the rescue effort, with 700 helicopters deployed to help. In Kumano, soldiers and other emergency workers were using diggers to clear crushed cars and mangled homes and chainsaws to cut up tree trunks. But they were moving carefully, looking as they went for survivors, or the remains of those killed in the disaster. In one part of Kumano, the nose of a white car was just visible underneath the top floor of a home that had been torn from the rest of the building and swept down a hillside. Water was still flowing from the surrounding hillsides around the feet of shellshocked residents, some of whom wept as they saw their damaged district. In neighbouring Okayama prefecture, rescue workers flew in helicopters over areas that are still submerged and otherwise unreachable, looking for signs of life. "As far as we could see from the helicopter, no-one is now waving for help," a rescue worker from Kurashiki city told AFP. Local government officials said pumping trucks were being deployed to help restore access to some of the worst-hit areas. "Rescuers had to go by boat yesterday due to flooding but the water is gradually receding today," a spokeswoman at the area's disaster control office said. "If the water level drops low enough, they may be able to access hard-hit areas by road or on foot." - Landslide risk - Even as the rains let up, authorities warned the downpours had loosened earth on hillsides and mountain slopes creating new risks. "We urge residents to remain cautious about possible landslides," a weather agency official told AFP. And with many people stuck in modestly equipped shelters with few possessions, or living in damaged homes with no running water or electricity, the rising temperatures posed a new problem, authorities said. At one point around five million people were told to evacuate, but the orders are not mandatory and many people remained at home, becoming trapped by rapidly rising water or sudden landslides. In the town of Mihara, roads were transformed into muddy rivers, with dirt piled up on either side as flood water gushed around the wheels of stranded cars. "The area became an ocean," 82-year-old resident Nobue Kakumoto told AFP Sunday, surveying the scene. In the town of Saka, Eiichi Tsuiki opted to stay in his home, and survived only by moving to the top floor as flood waters rose, washing away cars outside. "I've lived here for 40 years... I've never seen this before," the 69-year-old oyster farmer told AFP.
Why have record Japan rains been so deadly? Here are some of the factors that have contributed to the worst rain-related disaster in Japan in over two decades. - Typhoon season, record rains - The heavy rains began with a typhoon front that hit as Japan entered its yearly typhoon season. The archipelago is battered annually by an average of six typhoons, from around July to October or November. The storm fronts bring torrential downpours and heavy winds, and are closely tracked by weather and government officials. Despite various measures intended to prevent deaths, including dams to control flood waters, the country sees rain-related deaths most years. But this rainfront has been unprecedented: record rainfall was recorded in the 72 hours to Sunday at 118 government observation points across the affected area, the weather agency told AFP. - A complicated geography - About 70 percent of Japan's land is made up of mountains and hills, so homes are often built on steep slopes, or flood-prone flat plains below them. "In addition, Japan's earth is geologically diverse, with tectonic plates and volcanic geological layers, -- in a nutshell, it's weak," said Hiroyuki Ohno, head of the Sabo (sand erosion control) and Landslide Technical Centre. That puts many people's homes in the path of potential landslides and flooding. The government has a long-term project nudging people in disaster-prone areas to move, and has even banned new construction in the most vulnerable places. But the project is ongoing, and many remain in harm's way. - Wooden houses - Many of Japan's homes are built of wood, particularly traditional or traditional-style houses that remain popular in the countryside. Their foundations are also made of wood, which can be ideal for flexibility in the case of earthquakes, but stand little chance of withstanding the crushing pressure produced by a torrent of flood water or a massive landslide. AFP reporters saw homes where the top floor had been ripped away from the lower one, and carried away by landslides, and others that had been swept away wholesale from their plots. - Evacuation orders - Japanese authorities issued evacuation orders to around five million people during the worst of the rains, but the orders are not mandatory, and many ignored them. "Human beings have a so-called normalcy bias, meaning people try not to evacuate, ignoring negative information," said Hirotada Hirose, a disaster management expert. "This human nature means people can't react to disasters like landslides and flash floods, which occur suddenly," he told AFP. But experts also say Japan's warning system is problematic, with the decision to issue evacuation orders often left to local officials who may have no disaster management experience. "Reluctance to issue evacuation orders can result in delays... and if they are issued at odd hours, no one will hear about them," Hirose said. - Climate change? - Many residents may simply have been lulled into a false sense of security by years of experience with severe, but not deadly, weather systems. Many people in regions affected by the disaster told AFP that the rains were unlike anything they had seen before. "The frequency of heavy rain-linked disasters is on the rise, and we are facing the world where the rules learnt from your experiences no longer apply," Ohno said. Scientists have warned that one consequence of global warming could be an increase in rain-related disasters, and experts now say people should leave well in advance of evacuation orders where forecasts show heavy rain is possible. kh/sah/ceb Japan is famously prone to natural disasters including earthquakes and tsunamis, and is generally considered well-prepared to cope. So why has record rainfall caused more than 100 deaths? Here are some of the factors that have contributed to the worst rain-related disaster in Japan in over two decades. - Typhoon season, record rains - The heavy rains began with a typhoon front that hit as Japan entered its yearly typhoon season. The archipelago is battered annually by an average of six typhoons, from around July to October or November. The storm fronts bring torrential downpours and heavy winds, and are closely tracked by weather and government officials. Despite various measures intended to prevent deaths, including dams to control flood waters, the country sees rain-related deaths most years. But this rainfront has been unprecedented: record rainfall was recorded in the 72 hours to Sunday at 118 government observation points across the affected area, the weather agency told AFP. - A complicated geography - About 70 percent of Japan's land is made up of mountains and hills, so homes are often built on steep slopes, or flood-prone flat plains below them. "In addition, Japan's earth is geologically diverse, with tectonic plates and volcanic geological layers, -- in a nutshell, it's weak," said Hiroyuki Ohno, head of the Sabo (sand erosion control) and Landslide Technical Centre. That puts many people's homes in the path of potential landslides and flooding. The government has a long-term project nudging people in disaster-prone areas to move, and has even banned new construction in the most vulnerable places. But the project is ongoing, and many remain in harm's way. - Wooden houses - Many of Japan's homes are built of wood, particularly traditional or traditional-style houses that remain popular in the countryside. Their foundations are also made of wood, which can be ideal for flexibility in the case of earthquakes, but stand little chance of withstanding the crushing pressure produced by a torrent of flood water or a massive landslide. AFP reporters saw homes where the top floor had been ripped away from the lower one, and carried away by landslides, and others that had been swept away wholesale from their plots. - Evacuation orders - Japanese authorities issued evacuation orders to around five million people during the worst of the rains, but the orders are not mandatory, and many ignored them. "Human beings have a so-called normalcy bias, meaning people try not to evacuate, ignoring negative information," said Hirotada Hirose, a disaster management expert. "This human nature means people can't react to disasters like landslides and flash floods, which occur suddenly," he told AFP. But experts also say Japan's warning system is problematic, with the decision to issue evacuation orders often left to local officials who may have no disaster management experience. "Reluctance to issue evacuation orders can result in delays... and if they are issued at odd hours, no one will hear about them," Hirose said. - Climate change? - Many residents may simply have been lulled into a false sense of security by years of experience with severe, but not deadly, weather systems. Many people in regions affected by the disaster told AFP that the rains were unlike anything they had seen before. "The frequency of heavy rain-linked disasters is on the rise, and we are facing the world where the rules learnt from your experiences no longer apply," Ohno said. Scientists have warned that one consequence of global warming could be an increase in rain-related disasters, and experts now say people should leave well in advance of evacuation orders where forecasts show heavy rain is possible.
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