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NUKEWARS
Deadline in doubt in tense Iran nuclear talks
By Jo Biddle and Siavosh Ghazi
Vienna (AFP) June 28, 2015


Main sticking points in Iran nuclear talks
Vienna (AFP) June 28, 2015 - The broad outlines of an unprecedented deal between Iran and global powers to put a nuclear bomb out of Tehran's reach are known. But the devil is in the details.

Here are some of the thorniest sticking points which top negotiators still have to nail down to reach a comprehensive accord, as Tuesday's deadline looms.

SANCTIONS

Iran's main purpose in coming to the negotiating table is to win a lifting of a complex web of economic and trade sanctions which have been gradually tightened over the past decade. The sanctions have choked the Iranian economy, frozen more than $100 billion in oil revenues in bank accounts around the world, and barred the country from lucrative oil markets.

But "the expectations of one side don't match the willingness of the others," a Western diplomat said.

Tehran wants to see the immediate lifting of all EU, UN and US sanctions as soon as a deal is reached.

But the P5+1 powers leading the talks -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- are insisting sanctions should only be lifted progressively as Iran takes steps to reduce the capabilities of its suspect nuclear programme.

MILITARY SITES

Iranian leaders have repeated many times in the past weeks that they are opposed to inspections of sensitive military sites by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), insisting that it is a question of national sovereignty.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made such inspections one of his "red lines" and refused interviews with Iranian scientists, and access to documentation.

The IAEA however is seeking to end a long standoff over suspected past development of nuclear weapons -- what is referred to as the possible military dimensions (PMDs) of the Iranian programme.

They are seeking to verify reports -- slammed by Iran as false -- that up to 2003, and perhaps even beyond, Tehran carried out military nuclear research.

Some countries such as France are insisting that the need to address the lingering PMD issue is clearly defined and written into any final deal.

SANCTIONS 'SNAPBACK'

Western nations in particular are stressing that a mechanism needs to be put into place to allow any UN sanctions lifted under the deal to be quickly put back into place if Iran violates the accord.

A Western diplomat said there "is an accord" between the P5+1 on this issue. Privately, several sources say the idea is to have a committee made up of the P5+1 members which would examine reported violations.

Unlike at the UN Security Council, it is believed that no country would be able to veto any action by a single vote.

Iran however is believed not to be in favour of such an arrangement.

LENGTH OF A DEAL

Global powers want to curtail the Iranian nuclear programme for at least 10 years, and some parts of it for longer.

"Unlike the insistence from the Americans, we do not accept long-term limitations of 10, 12 years, and we told them how many years (of) limitations we are ready to accept," Khamenei, who has the final word for Iran on the deal, said last week.

The Lausanne framework accord agreed on April 2 says that Iran will limit its uranium enrichment programme for 10 years.

Khamenei is also insisting that Iran be allowed to continue nuclear research and development during the period.

Iran and the US admitted during tense talks Sunday they are highly likely to miss a looming deadline to nail down a historic nuclear deal as they struggled to overcome major differences.

Officials in Vienna said however that Tuesday's target date would only be missed by a few days, with Iran saying there was "no desire or discussion yet" on a longer extension.

A senior US official would not go as far as to say there was no chance of meeting the deadline, but said "it's fair to say the parties are planning to stay past the 30th to keep negotiating."

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meanwhile was set to return to Tehran for consultations, officials said, although the US official said this was not a matter of concern.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said as he joined the talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers that the six powers were prepared to walk away.

"No deal is better than a bad deal. There are red lines that we cannot cross and some very difficult decisions and tough choices are going to have to be made by all of us," Hammond told reporters.

EU foreign policy head Federica Mogherini said "political will" was still needed to get a deal after almost two years of intense diplomatic efforts to resolve the 13-year-old standoff.

"It is going to be tough, it has always been tough but not impossible," Mogherini told reporters.

Iran and the P5+1 group -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- are seeking to flesh out the final details of an accord that builds on a framework deal reached in Lausanne in April.

- Netanyahu warning -

It is hoped a deal would end a standoff dating back to 2002 which has threatened to escalate into war and poisoned the Islamic republic's relations with the outside world.

But it must stand up to intense scrutiny by hardliners in Iran and the United States, as well as Iran's regional rivals Israel, widely assumed to have nuclear weapons itself, and Saudi Arabia.

"It is still not too late to go back and insist on demands that will genuinely deny Iran the ability to arm itself with nuclear weapons and prevent it from receiving vast sums to finance its aggression, its spreading out and the terrorist onslaught," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday.

According to the Lausanne framework, Iran will slash the number of its uranium enrichment centrifuges, which can make nuclear fuel but also the core of a bomb, shrink its uranium stockpile and change the design of the Arak reactor.

In return it is seeking a lifting of a complicated web of EU, US and UN sanctions which have choked its economy and limited access to world oil markets.

But tough remaining issues include the timing and pace of this sanctions relief and UN access to Iranian military bases to investigate any suspicious behaviour.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that this was one of three key conditions for a deal that were "not yet accepted by all parties."

"In recent days it has become obvious that when it comes to the question of how... we can be sure that what we agree really is adhered to, there has been some discussion," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters.

"We left base camp a long time ago. We are now at high altitude with the summit before us. The cross on the summit is in sight. We have to hope that there is now no bad weather."

Britain says no Iran deal 'better than a bad deal'
Vienna (AFP) June 28, 2015 - No nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is better than a "bad deal", Britain's foreign minister said Sunday as he arrived for talks just days before a deadline for an accord.

"We still have very big challenges if we are going to be able to get this deal done," Philip Hammond told reporters in Vienna.

"I have said many times before and I will say it again today, no deal is better than a bad deal. There are red lines that we cannot cross and some very difficult decisions and tough choices are going to have to be made by all of us," he said.

Hammond was due to join US Secretary of State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and their French, German and EU counterparts aiming to finalise a historic accord by Tuesday.

China and Russia, the other two countries in the six-country group, were represented by deputy foreign ministers.

Officials on both sides have said that the deadline may be missed, but only by a few days.

According to a framework deal agreed in April, Iran will sharply reduce its nuclear programme in scale and submit to tighter UN inspections in order to make any drive to make an atomic bomb virtually impossible.

In return Iran, which denies seeking the bomb, will see painful sanctions lifted. Tough remaining issues include the timing and pace of the sanctions relief and UN access to Iranian military bases.


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NUKEWARS
White House, foes turn up heat ahead of Iran deadline
Washington (AFP) June 25, 2015
Down-to-the-wire talks in Vienna this week will decide whether the United States can reach a landmark nuclear deal with Iran, but a fierce lobbying battle in Washington may decide if it survives. For the last two years, those for and against an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program have traded newspaper opinion pieces, rolled out dueling advocacy campaigns and lobbied "influencers" on the ... read more


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