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NUKEWARS
China may be the real target of North Korea's pressure
By Patrick BAERT
Beijing (AFP) Sept 4, 2017


Japan at UN calls for new North Korea sanctions resolution
United Nations, United States (AFP) Sept 4, 2017 - Japan on Monday urged the UN Security Council to agree to draft a new sanctions resolution to punish North Korea after its sixth nuclear test as the top UN body met to discuss a response.

"We cannot waste any more time," Japanese Ambassador Koro Bessho told reporters ahead of an emergency council meeting called after Sunday's underground detonation of what is believed to be a hydrogen bomb.

"We need North Korea to feel the pressure -- if they go down this road there will be consequences."

"We hope that at the end of the meeting there is a general feeling that we need to work together to think of a new resolution," he added.

Japan and the United States are holding talks on the next steps with their international partners, Bessho said, but he added that Russia, China and South Korea must be "on board as well."

The United States, Britain, France, Japan and South Korea requested the urgent meeting after North Korea detonated what it described as a hydrogen bomb designed for a long-range missile.

South Korea's defense ministry warned monday that Pyongyang may be preparing another missile launch after two tests in July of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that apparently brought much of the US mainland into range.

The United States warned that it could launch a "massive military response" to any threats from North Korea and threatened to cut off all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.

The council has imposed seven sets of sanctions on North Korea since it first tested a nuclear device in 2006, but Pyongyang has repeatedly found ways to circumvent the measures.

The most recent resolutions, however, have significantly toughened the sanctions, targeting key exports sectors such as coal that are a source of hard currency for North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's regime.

France echoed Japan's call, with Ambassador Francois Delattre saying there should be a "swift adoption" of a new sanctions resolution that could target all sectors of North Korea's economy.

Britain said a new sanctions resolution could impose a total ban on North Korean guest workers, most of whom are sent to China and Russia, and whose earnings are a source of revenue for Pyongyang.

The United States and Japan have each imposed unilateral sanctions, with some targeting Chinese and Russian firms or individuals that do business with North Korea.

North Korea's escalating nuclear provocations are putting putative ally China in an increasing bind, and may be part of a strategy to twist Beijing's arm into orchestrating direct talks between Pyongyang and Washington, analysts said.

The North's Kim dynasty has repeatedly used nuclear brinkmanship over the years in a push to be taken seriously by the United States but traditionally avoided causing major embarrassment to China, its sole major ally and economic lifeline.

But leader Kim Jong-Un's detonation Sunday of what he called a hydrogen bomb marked the second time this year that the 33-year-old family scion upstaged Chinese President Xi Jinping just as he was hosting a carefully choreographed international gathering.

Communist propaganda deifies Xi as an infallible father figure, but Kim's actions are puncturing the facade and exposing the Chinese leader's impotence toward the nuclear crisis on his doorstep.

"North Korea's repeated nuclear and missile tests have put China in a more and more difficult position," said Shi Yinhong, Director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing.

Shi said Kim -- who has never met Xi -- had become "more and more hostile towards China" after Beijing signed on to tougher new international sanctions against Pyongyang.

That has apparently made Kim more willing to bring pressure on Xi, said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University.

- Behind the 8-ball -

Kim may be using Xi "like a cue ball in billiards," Cabestan said, "in order to get negotiations with the United States."

"But he has to be careful not to infuriate Xi as China is his only lifeline."

Pyongyang's sixth nuclear test, by far its most powerful to date, came just as leaders of the five BRICS emerging economies -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa -- gathered for a summit.

The meeting in the southeastern city of Xiamen was intended to be the typical China-hosted event -- micromanaged to the smallest detail to portray Xi at home as a wise and benevolent world leader.

But Kim stole the spotlight, just as he did in May when the North conducted a missile test that embarrassed Xi as he hosted a large international summit on trade.

Both Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programmes have been banned by the UN Security Council, and Sunday's blast dramatically raised the stakes in Kim's standoff with the world.

David Kelly of Beijing-based think tank China Policy said the new sanctions and China's decision earlier this year to suspend North Korean coal imports -- a crucial source of cash -- were likely triggers for Pyongyang's growing belligerence.

"The message is: I am not to be messed with," said Kelly.

"He's been messed with by the games played by Washington and Beijing."

The pressure comes at an inopportune time for Xi, who next month presides over the ruling Communists' once-every-five-years party congress, the one-party state's most consequential political gathering.

Xi is expected to decide the party leadership for years to come and consolidate his own grip, and the delicate, stage-managed event is always preceded by months of tightening controls.

But the nuclear standoff in increasingly making Xi appear powerless to prevent a deepening crisis next door.

He now looks paralysed, with US President Donald Trump criticising China for not doing enough, and North Korea acting increasingly aggressive, analysts said.

Shi, of Renmin University, said the escalating tensions are "causing a major stir and bring a challenging international situation" into the spotlight just before the congress and at a time when the party is most risk-averse.

Ultimately, Kim's true intentions may never be fully known but one thing appears certain: he views his nuclear and missile programmes as vital to protecting his rule, said Shi.

"The years have proven that all of the military threats will not change Kim's determination to develop nuclear weapons, nor block his ability to do so," he said.

NUKEWARS
North Korea: Facing limited options, Trump may choose sanctions
Washington (AFP) Sept 3, 2017
Despite the US warning on Sunday of a "massive military response" to any threat from North Korea, the Trump administration has few good options to force the North to rein in its nuclear and missile programs following Pyongyang's most powerful nuclear test yet. Its best hope may be to further expand its already wide-reaching economic sanctions against the North, hoping this new pain might fin ... read more

Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com


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