. 24/7 Space News .
ICE WORLD
A simpler way to estimate the feedback between permafrost carbon and climate
by Staff Writers
Berkeley CA (SPX) Oct 08, 2015


The new approach includes data from recently compiled soil carbon maps of permafrost in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. Image courtesy Berkeley Lab. For a larger version of this image please go here.

One of the big unknowns in predicting climate change is the billions of tons of carbon frozen in Arctic permafrost. As global warming causes soil temperatures to increase, some of this carbon will decompose and enter the atmosphere and accelerate climate change.

Although permafrost carbon has the potential to be a huge player in the planet's climate, it's difficult to predict the amount that will enter the atmosphere for a given increase in temperature.

That's because the current way to estimate feedback between permafrost carbon and climate is by using complex Earth system models that include a wide range of atmospheric and land surface phenomena. When it comes to representing the dynamics of permafrost carbon, these models don't use data from direct observations of the amount of carbon that is currently frozen in Arctic permafrost.

Now, a team of researchers led by a scientist from the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) has developed a simple model of permafrost carbon based on direct observations. Their approach could help climate scientists evaluate how well permafrost dynamics are represented in the Earth system models used to predict climate change.

The scientists present their research in a paper published online in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

"In the classic way of evaluating how well climate models account for permafrost carbon, scientists ask: Does the model predict soil carbon levels that are close to what is observed?" says Charlie Koven, a staff scientist in Berkeley Lab's Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division who led the research.

"But we flipped the question and started with: What are the actual, observed stocks of carbon in the soil? With this approach, we built the simplest possible model of Arctic permafrost carbon and its dynamics," Koven says.

Their approach takes into account recently developed soil carbon maps that identify the distribution and type of carbon in permafrost soils in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. It also includes a meta-analysis of several lab studies in which permafrost was held at a constant above-freezing temperature for months or even years.

These incubation experiments quantify the rates of carbon lost due to permafrost thaw. A third component is a meta-analysis of soil thermal models that track soil dynamics in response to climate warming. These models account for the effects of melting snow, freezing and thawing of soils, and differences in soil thermal properties, to name a few phenomena.

The scientists ran their simplified model under two scenarios. In one scenario, fossil fuel emissions begin to curb dramatically by the middle of this century and the global temperature increases 1.8 degrees Celsius. In the other scenario, fossil fuel emissions continue at current rates unchecked and the global temperature increases 3.4 degrees Celsius.

They averaged the results from the two scenarios, and found that for every one degree Celsius of global warming, the amount of permafrost carbon that enters the atmosphere is equivalent to 1.5 years of global carbon dioxide emissions.

"We found for a given amount of warming, there is an extra amount of carbon released, which would lead to further warming--in other words, a feedback loop," says Koven.

Koven notes that their approach doesn't include many important processes that may increase or mitigate carbon release from permafrost soils.

"But the beauty of simple models is they are very easy to understand. We know exactly what goes into this," Koven adds. "The processes responsible for permafrost carbon-climate feedback have not been well represented in many models, and our approach is a way to start. It serves as a data-constrained estimate on the large-scale permafrost carbon response to warming."

The research was funded partly by the Department of Energy's Office of Science.

A paper on this research, entitled "A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback" is published online Oct. 5 in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


.


Related Links
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Beyond the Ice Age






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

Previous Report
ICE WORLD
Ice samples from Greenland and Russia provide clues to climate
Birmingham, UK (SPX) Oct 02, 2015
Scientists at the University of Birmingham have discovered evidence of carbonaceous aerosols - organic dust - transported from Asia and deposited in the Arctic over the last 450 years, according to research published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports. They have also found that increased levels of dust were being deposited during warmer periods when the Arctic Oscillation - changes i ... read more


ICE WORLD
Lunar Pox

Space startup confirms plans for robotic moon landings

Asteroids found to be the moon's main 'water supply'

Russian scientist hope to get rocket fuel, water, oxygen from Lunar ice

ICE WORLD
NASA unveils missing pieces in journey to Mars

Curiosity Rover Team Confirms Ancient Lakes on Mars

MRO imagery reveals Red Planet's stressed substrate

Geology Award Going to Mars Landing Site Expert at JPL

ICE WORLD
NASA Tournament Lab to collaborate on human habitation in space

NASA Prepares to Test Orion Service Module

NASA announces Challenge for Methods of Assessing Damage to Space Suits

Selected NASA Discovery Missions Include Three With PSI Ties

ICE WORLD
Latest Mars film bespeaks potential of China-U.S. space cooperation

Exhibition on "father of Chinese rocketry" opens in U.S.

The First Meeting of the U.S.-China Space Dialogue

China's new carrier rocket succeeds in 1st trip

ICE WORLD
Meet the International Docking Adapter

NASA extends Boeing contract for International Space Station

Russian launches cargo spaceship to the ISS

Successful re-entry of H-II Transfer Vehicle Kounotori5

ICE WORLD
Both passengers for next Ariane 5 mission arrive in French Guiana

Arianespace signs ARSAT to launch a new satellite for Argentina

Ariane 5 orbits Sky Muster and ARSAT-2

A satellite launcher for the Middle East

ICE WORLD
Mysterious ripples found racing through planet-forming disc

The Most Stable Source of Light in the World

Earth-class planets likely have protective magnetic fields, aiding life

Stellar atmosphere can be used to predict the composition of rocky exoplanets

ICE WORLD
More students earning statistics degrees - but not enough

3-D printing techniques help surgeons carve new ears

Caution: Shrinks when warm

Flipping molecular attachments amps up activity of CO2 catalyst









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.