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Mideast Watch: A Russian-Syrian Alliance?

File photo of the mobile missile system being sold by Russia to Syria.
by Mark N. Katz
Washington (UPI) Sep 05, 2005
Despite their many common interests (including opposition to American "hegemony" in general and the American-led intervention in next-door Iraq in particular), Russian-Syrian relations have not been particularly close during most of the Putin era.

Russian-Israeli relations, by contrast, have become very close under both Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Since Syrian President Bashar Assad met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in January 2005, however, Russian-Syrian relations have improved dramatically. Russia has even agreed to sell an advanced air defense missile system to Syria over both American and Israeli objections.

Far from signaling a serious downturn in Russian-Israeli relations, though, Putin has been pursuing close ties with Israel and with Syria simultaneously. What is more, he appears to be succeeding at this delicate balancing act.

Unlike the leaders of most countries who have either criticized Putin's policy toward Chechnya or been unwilling to endorse it, Sharon has expressed wholehearted approval for Putin's tough approach - describing it as being as "necessary" as his own vis-a-vis the Palestinians.

The two leaders have developed a genuine rapport, and Putin has expressed concern on numerous occasions for the safety and wellbeing of Israel's large Russian-speaking population. Trade between Russia and Israel is much greater than that between Russia and Syria. Important security cooperation has also developed between Russia and Israel - which increased even further after the 2004 Beslan tragedy.

In light of this, the sudden improvement in Russian-Syrian relations at the beginning of 2005 appeared to threaten the Russian-Israeli relationship. Israeli politicians and observers were especially upset that Putin was going ahead with the sale of air defense missiles to Damascus after Israeli and American leaders had repeatedly asked him not to do this.

Yet despite the genuine unhappiness expressed by Israeli officials over Putin going ahead with this missile sale, both governments acted to contain and minimize their differences. A longtime Russian observer of Moscow's relations with the Middle East, Georgiy Mirskiy of Moscow's Institute for the World Economy and International Relations, predicted that "deliveries of Russian missiles to Damascus will not prompt a row" with Israel.

Yevgeniy Satanovskiy - president of Moscow's Institute for the Study of Israel and the Near East and one of Russia's strongest proponents of close Russian-Israeli ties - said that the sale of Russian missiles to Syria would have "precisely the same effect on relations with Israel as the Americans' arms exports to Saudi Arabia, that is, simply none at all."

Putin's visit to Israel (as well as Egypt but not Syria) in April 2005 and repeated expression of his concern for Israeli security while he was there indicated that the Russian-Israeli relationship was still close despite the sale of Russian air defense missile systems to Syria. The recent improvement in Russian-Syrian relations, then, does not appear to presage a firm alliance between Moscow and Damascus, but something much less instead.

Indeed, the real question about recently improved Russian-Syrian relations is: What's in it both for Damascus and for Moscow? Up until recently, Syria did not have much incentive to pursue improved relations with Moscow.

But the American-led intervention in Iraq, and - even more - the combined European, American pressure on Syria over Lebanon have heightened Damascus's sense of insecurity, thus increasing its incentive to turn to Moscow.

This is exactly the position that Putin wants Syria to be in. While Russia may not be willing or able to defend Syria, the combination of Syria's heightened sense of insecurity and its isolation from the West is what has induced Damascus to give the Russian arms and petroleum industries preferential access to Syria. (There have even been reports of negotiations between the Russian atomic energy industry and Syria, but nothing has come to fruition yet in this realm.)

Moscow does not want Syria to have improved relations with the West or make peace with Israel. For under these circumstances, Russian firms might have to compete with Western ones for Syria's business - something which they do not want to have to do.

On the other hand, Moscow does not want a hostile Sunni fundamentalist regime to come to power in Damascus since Russia would undoubtedly lose whatever contracts, investments, and other benefits (including continued Russian naval access to Tartus) it gains from the current regime. The present situation in Syria, then, is best suited for Putin to advance Russia's relatively modest, commercially motivated interests there.

Nor does this threaten to seriously damage Russia's relations with either Israel or the U.S. For Moscow understands that while both the U.S. and Israel have little reason to love Bashar Assad, their fear that he will be overthrown and replaced by an Islamic fundamentalist one give them both an interest in Moscow helping to prop him up.

(Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University.)

All rights reserved. � 2005 United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of United Press International.

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US Criticizes Syrian Missile Tests
Washington (AFP) Jun 03, 2005
The United States confirmed Friday that Syria had carried out new missile tests and said they were fresh proof Damascus was "out of step" with moves toward peace in the Middle East.



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