Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf is looking to cement his presidency for another five years in a referendum, while in India the ruling Hindu nationalists face a censure vote in parliament over anti-Muslim riots in the western state of Gujarat.

With Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee both forced to turn to their constituents, neither has changed their position on the situation at the borders, where about one million troops have been deployed since mid-December.

Tensions between the South Asian states, which have fought three wars since independence in 1947, were sent spiralling on December 13, when Islamic militants allegedly linked to Pakistan raided the Indian parliament.

Pakistan says it has since taken strong measures against extremists, including banning the two outfits India holds responsible for the parliament attack that claimed 14 lives.

But New Delhi contends there has been no let-up in the infiltration of Islamic guerrillas into its zone of Kashmir, the scene of a 13-year-old separatist insurgency.

It also says Musharraf's initial zeal against extremists has lost steam, with many jailed militants walking free.

Musharraf has underlined his attempts to stamp out Islamic extremism during his referendum rallies, but he has been referring to the sectarian violence that has rocked Pakistan rather than the Kashmir separatist struggle.

Retired Pakistani lieutenant general Kamal Matinuddin, the author of several books on South Asian politics, said Musharraf would likely stick to his well-known policy after the vote -- that India and Pakistan must withdraw their forces and resume dialogue.

"The only thing this referendum will do is give Musharraf more confidence," Matinuddin said.

Indian officials deeply mistrust Musharraf -- particularly since he won worldwide acclaim for supporting the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan -- but have refrained from speaking publicly about the referendum.

"If Musharraf can stabilize the economy and his American support is not stifling what he wants, then he might be more confident in dealing with India," said Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, deputy director of the government-funded Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

But Bhaskar said Indian officials would also be looking at whether political parties were successful in their protests against Musharraf's referendum, a development that could force the general to alter his positions.

In India, Vajpayee is bracing for an opposition-sponsored measure in parliament that would condemn the riots in Gujarat, which has left more than 900 people dead, as a failure by the government to protect religious minorities.

Some of Vajpayee's two dozen allies have publicly toyed with dumping their support for the federal coalition, sensing the premier has drifted to the right with his defense of Gujarat's Hindu-nationalist state leadership, accused of fomenting the riots.

Vajpayee has blasted the opposition Congress party's criticism as a potential security threat, saying "sweeping generalizations" about the situation "demoralize Indians and present the wrong picture of India abroad."

But the riots have already tarnished what India has long perceived as its moral high ground against Pakistan, with Western governments expressing concern -- albeit quietly -- about the mass killings allegedly carried out by the government's ideological kin.

"Vajpayee's position as prime minister does not suffer from (Musharraf's) problem of legitimacy, but he and his government are being taken to task for not making use of the instruments provided by the constitution in dealing with the abnormal situation in Gujarat," The Hindu newspaper said.

All rights reserved. � 2002 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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