These large numbers may appear impressive but they hide the fact that the nanosensor market will be highly fragmented, said Lawrence Gasman, a principal analyst for NanoMarkets, a nanotechnology analysis firm in Sterling, Va.

In this extraordinarily complicated economic landscape, Gasman said, only a few kinds of nanosensors are really worthwhile chasing after with investment dollars.

With components the size of molecules, nanosensors are intrinsically smaller, more sensitive, less power-consuming and potentially less expensive than other sensors.

Our research suggests that while current industrial sensors may cost tens of thousands of dollars, nano versions of the same thing could, in theory, be built for tens of dollars if volume production can be justified, Gasman said.

Nanosensors can detect single cells or even atoms, making them far more sensitive than counterparts with larger components.

Sensors are all dependent on some sort of surface chemistry, and as you drive down the size of the sensor components, more and more of the component is surface, said Steven Sunshine, president of the global sensor firm Smiths Detection of Pasadena, Calif. It's like the boulder vs. grains of salt. The boulder has a very small surface compared to the total volume of rock, and as the rock goes down in size, the more surface you have.

Eventually, the capital and operational costs of nanosensors may drop low enough that they will be deployed in arrays or swarms so their sensing function becomes more ubiquitous and has a higher level of redundancy, Gasman said.

There are many potential applications.

In the military and homeland security area, he said, there is a need for highly sensitive and widely distributed sensors to detect biotoxins and radiation. In the healthcare field, ultra-sensitive labs-on-a-chip could detect and analyze the tiny changes that signify the onset of cancer. The aerospace industry wants to use nanosensors in the bodies of aircraft to constantly monitor where and when a plane needs maintenance. The automotive industry could use nanosensors in vehicles to improve fuel usage and in luxury vehicles to provide improved climate control and seat ergonomics.

Several industry giants are involved with nanosensors, including IBM and Genencor, as are dozens of startups and scores of research labs around the world.

These are more the exceptions than the rule, Gasman said. On the whole, the sensor industry has not behaved as if nanosensors are a priority.

Nanosensors present a number of technical problems at the moment. For instance, their construction blocks are expensive and they often are difficult to manufacture to specification. Still, Gasman said, none of these obstacles is insurmountable.

What is really holding back the nanosensor market is that there is no clear idea in the industry about how long the market will take to evolve, he explained. This makes it very difficult for venture capitalists, investment banks, internal corporate-funding committees and private investors to commit to putting money into nanosensors.

The main reason it is so difficult to come up with an answer to when the nanosensor market will evolve, however, is its fragmented nature.

The timing question has to be answered for each fragment - that is, market niche, Gasman said.

Military and medical sectors, for example, have relatively short time frames for adopting nanosensors because their small size and high sensitivity can meet immediate needs and quickly prove cost effective compared with other technologies. The automotive sector, in contrast, is likely to adopt nanosensors over a longer time frame because the car companies are extremely price-sensitive regarding components.

For his study, Gasman's team considered 10 different industry sectors in which nanosensors are likely to be deployed, seven different kinds of sensors, for targets such as gases or biomolecules, and eight different types of technology platforms, such as nanoparticles and nanocoatings.

That's 560 niches, each with its own dynamic, he explained.

The team concluded nanosensors are unlikely to dominate the sensor market anytime soon.

In fact, our forecast of the nanosensors market indicates that nanosensors will likely not achieve a 10 percent penetration of the total sensors market until early 2010, Gasman said. However, in light of the total size of the sensor market, even minimal penetration means that the nanosensor market will be worth a few billion dollars within just a few years, which makes them a market opportunity well worth pursuing.

In terms of market niches valued at more than $100 million in 2009, NanoMarkets found leading candidates were in biomedicine and healthcare, with biomolecular nanosensors in the field earning a projected $769 million, gas and liquid sensors valued at $274 million, and radiation nanosensors at $107 million.

The classic example that comes up are nanosensors that can detect early signs of cancer. It's one of those diseases that detecting the small molecular changes at the start could literally be a matter of life and death, Gasman said. Cancer's a dramatic example, but heart disease could qualify as well.

Homeland defense niches are considered leaders as well, with biomolecular nanosensors in the field valued at $191 million, gas and liquid at $164 million, radiation at $155 million, optical at $146 million, thermal at $109 million and electrical and magnetic at $100 million.

By having them small and cheap, you can have sensors distributed widely and pick up small and potentially deadly quantities of anthrax or other forms of toxins, Gasman said.

Over time, as they grow cheaper, nanosensors should find their way into transportation for better environmental and fuel-use control, and ergonomics in both cars and planes. This will lead to lowered costs and more comfort and safety for customers - key competitive points for both airlines and automotive companies.

NanoMarkets forecasts the aerospace segment of the nanosensors market will reach $214 billion in 2008 and $2.1 billion in 2012, while the automotive segment will grow from $133 million to $1.5 billion over the same period, Gasman said.

Nano World is a weekly series examining the exploding field of nanotechnology, by Charles Choi, who covers research and technology for UPI Science News.

All rights reserved. � 2004 United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of United Press International.

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