Using this information as a starting point, Futron analysts regularly review planned and proposed launch activity and generate launch forecasts. This type of forecast, referred to as a "supply-side" forecast, can be fairly accurate in predicting near-term launch activity.

With the start of the third quarter of 2003, Futron has performed a rigorous analysis of future launch activity and generated a "best estimate" forecast for the next 18 months. In comparing projected 2003 and 2004 launch numbers with those from previous years, trends and significant points become apparent. Among those are:

Worldwide launch activity (commercial and non-commercial) is cyclical, increasing some years and decreasing in others. However, by 2004, the launch industry will have experienced three years of consistent increases.

2001 experienced the lowest number of commercial launches (16) since 1994. 2002 saw a modest recovery (24) and the number of commercial launches will remain stable in 2003 and 2004 (23 and 26 respectively).

While it is too early to say definitively, there is a preliminary trend towards increasing numbers of non-commercial launches.

Regarding the number of GEO commercial satellites, 2000 and 2001 experienced a whiplash of a high of 30 followed by a low of 13. Since then, the number of GEO comsats has settled into the 20-23 range, which is consistent with the number of launched throughout the late 1990s.

The three major commercial space-faring nations (USA, Russia, and Europe) have been battling mightily to distinguish themselves and garner launch orders. However, currently, the global launch-buying community seems equally satisfied with each nation�s products, as each nation will capture about 30% market share in 2003 and 2004.

There are ominous signs ahead for the commercial launch industry. While the nearterm commercial manifest if fairly stable, the outlook is much less robust after 2004.

Two years ago in a White Paper like this one, Futron predicted there would be 19 commercial launches in 2001 and 23 in 2002. The actual numbers were 16 and 24.

Full Report - 450K PDF File
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