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Road to North Korea May Lead to Success - or Failure
Tokyo (IPS) Sep 16, 2002
Japan is abuzz over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to North Korea next week, one that has as much potential for success as it has for yet another failure.

When he arrives in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang on Sep. 17, Koizumi will be the first Japanese leader after the Second World War to visit the Stalinist state and hold a meeting with its reclusive leader, Kim Jong Il.

Tokyo's announcement of Koizumi's trip surprised many here and overseas, given the suspicious ties between Japan and North Korea over the decades.

The issue of a Japanese apology for its colonisation of the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945 and North Korea's calls for compensation, the alleged abductions of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents in the seventies and eighties, and more recent intrusions by spy ships into Japan's waters, have soured relations deeply.

In this context, "the decision to take a one-day visit to Pyongyang is dramatic. The implications are wide and risky," says a political analyst at the Modern Korea Institute.

Nearly six decades after the end of Japan's colonisation of the Korean peninsula, Japan has not normalised relations with North Korea. Ties with Pyongyang have been thorny, while Tokyo forged diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1965.

From the viewpoint of Japan, a long-time American ally, North Korea's inclusion by Washington in what U.S. President George W Bush calls the "axis of evil" does not help relations with the Stalinist state.

North Korean leader Kim's moves in recent years to come out of diplomatic isolation, including trips to China and Russia, are also watched closely here.

But many Japanese continue to look at it with suspicion because of domestic issues, ranging from the abduction of 11 of its nationals by North Korea to Pyongyang's test-firing of a missile in 1998 that flew over Japanese territory and rattled the public.

In fact, Japanese officials say that the settlement of the abduction issue is the first required step before any normalisation of ties with Pyongyang can happen.

How Japan moves in its ties with North Korea - in the process giving Pyongyang's emergence from isolation an extra push - is thus closely watched by analysts.

"Japan is the only country in the world that is the target of North Korean aggression, which is why Koizumi's visit is watched so carefully by the world," explains Takemasa Moriya, director of the Bureau of Defence Policy.

The other matter high on the Japanese public's list of concerns about North Korea is the fate of the 11 kidnapped Japanese nationals, an issue that has come into the national focus since Koizumi announced his trip to North Korea on Aug. 30.

"North Korea agreed to talk to me, saying it will take up the issue of (abductions)," said Koizumi, the announcement of whose trip led to what the 'Asahi Shimbun' newspaper reported as a rise in his public approval ratings from 43 to 51 percent in a poll it did in early September.

The abducted Japanese are used to teach the Japanese language and customs to North Korean spies, who then infiltrate Japan to do military surveillance, and to gather information and technology, officials say.

For instance, the North Korea spy behind the 1987 bombing of a Korean Air jet, killing all 155 aboard, had told the media that she learned Japanese from a kidnapped Japanese national. Officials add that North Korean spies have used Japanese passports to enter Japan and other countries for espionage purposes.

North Korea has denied the allegations of abduction, but recently indicated it is willing to search for the missing persons.

On Wednesday, Shigeru Yokota, father of Megumi who disappeared at the age of 13 years in 1977 from Niigata prefecture, northern Japan, said he was optimistic about the results of Koizumi's visit.

"We are hoping against hope," he told a media briefing. "We expect the prime minister to return with concrete evidence of the whereabouts of my daughter and other missing persons. Only then can we call the visit successful."

Relatives of those abducted have waited for years without concrete evidence about their kin, but some are hoping that those still in held in North Korea can one day return to Japan.

Professor Toshiyuki Shikata, an expert on the Korean peninsula at Tokyo University, believes that Koizumi has embarked on a political gamble by going to North Korea. "Dealing with North Korea is not easy," he points out. "A dialogue with leader Kim Jong Il can misfire, as we know by experience up to now."

Indeed, past negotiations between Tokyo and Pyongyang have been bogged down in misunderstandings and disagreements. Several meetings between North Korean officials and Japanese Red Cross Society on the missing Japanese have not borne fruit.

The 'Asahi' poll this month showed that 53 percent of those surveyed said they "greatly" or "somewhat" expected Pyongyang-Tokyo ties to warm with Koizumi's trip, while 46 percent said they did not expect much or expected nothing to come of it.

Asked if the visit would clarify the issue of the abductions, 28 percent said there would be progress but 64 percent said they expected no improvement.

Still, the odds could be in Koizumi's favour. For instance, North Korea's deteriorating socialist economy -- its leaders recently showed signs of toying with some elements of a market economy -- could force Kim to comply with some of Koizumi's requests on the abduction issue.

North Korea has been struggling with years of drought and famine, a situation that has fuelled the number of refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries like China.

Recently, Kim adopted a new policy allowing foreign investors to take more than a 50 percent stake in joint ventures in order to boost investment.

Shikata adds that there is the possibility that Koizumi, known as a straight-talking and charismatic leader, would win Kim over. Still, Moriya warns against over-optimism.

"The visit could end up only a show, which could be a devastating blow to the hopes of Koizumi," the weekly 'Shukan Bunshun' cautioned last week.

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