The frog in question is U.S. leadership in science and technology, and the conclusion drawn by William Wulf is that American complacency -- in both the public and private sectors -- has created a simmering crisis that could have dangerous economic and political consequences.

Which is where the amphibious metaphor comes in. Apparently, if you plunge a frog into boiling water it'll just jump right out of the pot. The way to boil a frog is to slowly turn up the heat, so it never notices it's turning into grenouille.

"I'm worried that our country is getting boiled," said Wulf to participants at the second National Software Summit, a three-day conference hosted by the Center for National Software Studies.

Wulf, a computer scientist who has been president of the engineering academy since 1997, issued a rebuke of what he characterized as a troubling "pattern of complacency" in U.S. science, particularly in engineering and physical sciences.

The number of engineering graduate degrees awarded by U.S. universities has been steadily declining in the last two decades, from about 85,000 in 1985 to 65,000 in 2000, he said.

A National Science Foundation survey found science and engineering Ph.D.s in this country have declined about 7 percent, from almost 27,300 in 1998 to just over 25,500 in 2001.

Likewise, the number of college students who decide to major in engineering is also in decline, falling to the current level of only 4-percent of all undergraduates, a number which Wulf characterized as being "at about the bottom of the barrel in the world."

Diminishing interest in engineering by American students is reflective of a culture that is, said Wulf, "technologically illiterate" and proud of it. He expressed incredulity that "it is somehow socially acceptable to be illiterate about the single most formative force in the last hundred years."

Government gets away with slashing education funding because of a "tremendous shift in attitude toward higher education," said Wulf. "What used to be seen as a public good is now viewed as a private good."

The goal of the summit was to develop policy recommendations relating to technology, and Wulf said government had a crucial role in maintaining American leadership. Specifically, he called for an increase in the share of federal funding that goes to engineering and physical-science projects, as opposed to the natural sciences.

Exacerbating the education problem is the reduction in foreign visas issued since Sept. 11, a policy which keeps many researchers and students out of the country, Wulf charged.

"We are sending the message that what we say about American openness and freedom, and what we do, are very different things," Wulf said.

According to Wulf, whatever benefits to domestic security made by the visa restrictions are outweighed by the negative impact on foreign scientists, who might otherwise be natural ambassadors of American goodwill in a time of rising anti-Americanism abroad.

"We're buying very little security at very high price in talent and attitudes," he said.

Wulf's audience was largely made up of tech industry executives and senior software professionals, and they did not escape blame for what he called a "creeping crisis" of scientific decline. He lamented both the "demise" of much of corporate research and development, and the outsourcing -- also referred to here as "offshoring" -- of technology jobs to developing nations.

Despite his gloomy message, Wulf's critique appeared to be less of a complaint than a challenge, and he encouraged his audience to be more active in demanding legislative remedies. "You are influential people and you could have enormous impact," he said, adding, "On most issues, a congressperson gets virtually no input from the public."

Wulf tried to end his somewhat gloomy talk on a note of optimism. "Wouldn't it be wonderful to inject these issues into the presidential debate?"

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