Heating Up By One Degree

TERRADAILY

Maps of the projected increase of surface air temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) from the 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments with the GFDL climate model are shown above. The warming is projected to be particularly large over much of the mid-latitude continental regions, including North America and Asia. The temperature changes shown for the 4xCO2 experiment are almost as large as the difference between the present climate and that of the Late Cretaceous approximately 65-90 million years ago.

Washington - October 8, 2000
Recorded observations of how the Earth's climate has changed over the last 50 years can substantially help scientists predict future climate change, according to an international team of scientists.

Using a synthesis of computer models and observed data along with a common assumption about future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, the team expects that global mean temperature in the decade 2036-2046 will be 1.8 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (CONVERT) warmer than pre-industrial conditions. This temperature range can be expected to narrow as further observations become available.

In a study to be published in the October 5 issue of Nature, scientists used a novel statistical technique to refine estimates of climate change produced by leading computer climate models around the world.

The team, which was led by Myles Allen of Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and included Thomas Delworth of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, assembled climate change projections from climate modeling centers in the United States, England, and Germany. Knowledge of how well those computer models simulated climate change that was observed over the last 50 years was used to refine forecasts of future climate change.

"For the first time, we are using observations of climate change as it's happening to pin down what is likely to happen next," according to Allen.

"The technique attempts to statistically compensate for inherent limitations in climate models," according to Delworth. "This technique does not, however, address uncertainties related to future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants."

Projections of future climate change are hindered both by uncertainties in the computer models used for such projections, as well as uncertainties in future emissions of greenhouse gases. "This study only addressed the former of those two issues."

While the goal of the study was to assess the uncertainty in the projection of future climate change, the authors note that the study assumes that the general character of climate change over the next 50 years will be closely related to changes observed over the last 50 years.

In addition, future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants which differ from the assumptions used in this study will alter the projections of climate change. "There is clearly the potential for substantial surprises in future climate change," according to Delworth.

The co-authors of the paper "Uncertainty in Forecasts of Anthropogenic Climate Change" are: Myles R. Allen, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory; Peter Stott and John Mitchell, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Reiner Schur, Max-Planck-Institut Fur Meteorologie; and Thomas Delworth, NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

TERRADAILY

Urban Air Pollution Won't Increase Global Temperature Anytime Soon

Washington - September 25, 2000
Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have found that although urban air pollution is expected to increase significantly in the coming century, it will not have a big effect on global temperature change.

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2016 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service.