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European antitrust ruling unlikely to hurt Microsoft, analysts say
WASHINGTON (AFP) Mar 24, 2004
Europe's landmark anti-trust sanctions on Microsoft Corp., hailed by competitors and decried by the software titan, may in fact have little or no impact, analysts said.

In any case, Microsoft is likely to get the ruling suspended during an appeal, which may last years, a legal analyst said.

The European Union fined billionaire Bill Gates' Microsoft 497 million euros (611 million dollars), barely denting the giant's 55 billion dollars in savings.

It also forced Microsoft to offer a version of the Windows operating system without the built-in Media Player program, which is used for playing music and video.

And it ordered the company to reveal secret computer code to allow rivals to make server software that works seamlessly with Windows. Servers are computers that run e-mail and other services for multiple computers.

Microsoft's chief counsel, Brad Smith, said the ruling would "freeze technology, hobble the operating system and provide users with less value for their euro, rather than more."

Competitors lauded the decision.

But analysts said the ruling may not even take effect.

"If, as seems most likely, the courts suspend the application of the decision and it takes a number of years for the resolution to happen, I don't think it will have any significant impact on Microsoft or the market," said Nicholas Economides, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

Microsoft would secure a suspension during the appeal by claiming "irreparable harm" if it had to comply, he said.

Microsoft has said an appeal may last four or five years.

Even implemented, the results of the European ruling were in doubt.

Dan Kusnetzky, vice president of systems software research at IDC, said computer makers, even given a choice, would likely carry on pre-installing Windows with the Media Player.

Manufacturers wanted to avoid the risk of programming conflicts, which could raise customer-support costs, he said.

"Microsoft may be required to distribute two versions. That does not necessarily mean the end users will see it," Kusnetzky said.

Microsoft had more than a 50-percent share of shipments of server software, and it was likely to stay in control because some functions on Microsoft programs worked only with Windows server software.

"I am not sure that it is a complete solution to the issue that the court is examining. It certainly is an attempt," Kusnetzky said.

Investment analysts, too, believed Microsoft would feel little pain.

"The only issue we see is whether Microsoft will be under some constraints going forward in adding new things to Windows which may be viewed as 'tying' of a separate product with its monopoly Windows product," Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund said in a report.

"We expect Microsoft to fight these potential constraints but believe this is unlikely to materially impact Microsoft's business going forward."

Microsoft shares rose 21 cents, or 0.87 percent, to 24.36 dollars in early afternoon trade.

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